#市场情绪与趋势 The distribution wave that started in July this year has finally come to an end, which is a noteworthy signal. The behavior of long-term holders often explains the market better than technical analysis—they won't panic and sell off due to short-term fluctuations, nor will they blindly buy in. When this group begins to pause their selling, it indicates they are waiting for something.

But I want to remind everyone not to be fooled by statements like "rebound rally has started." I've seen too many cases in this circle where a piece of positive news comes out, retail investors rush in, only to be heavily taken advantage of. Stopping distribution does not necessarily mean an increase; it’s just a turning point in market sentiment. Whether the trend will continue depends on subsequent volume and fundamentals.

There's an important detail—who are the long-term holders? They are those who have been accumulating at historical lows, truly believing in Bitcoin's value. When they stop distributing, it shows they are still accumulating or at least no longer in a rush to sell. This patience is actually a sign of risk awareness, not greed.

Currently, the most dangerous thing in the market is those newcomers who rush in at the first sign of a rebound. Protect your positions well, don’t mistake a rebound for a lifeline. This could be a real opportunity, or it could be a trap. Time will tell us the answer.