Standard Chartered Bank: The Global Economy May Shift Toward Fiscal Stimulus and a Smooth Transition by 2026

The Standard Chartered 2026 "Global Outlook" report predicts that the global economy's growth rate in 2026 will remain roughly the same as in 2025, at 3.4%, maintaining a macro-level "calm" stance. However, beneath this overall stability, there are key shifts in growth engines and multiple uncertainties that bring about deep "unease."

The report indicates that in 2026, global economic growth will mainly depend on expansionary fiscal policies and domestic demand driven by corporate investments (especially in artificial intelligence), rather than the monetary policy support and export pre-positioning relied upon in 2025. This signifies a profound change in policy focus and growth models across countries.

Under this new pattern, Standard Chartered Bank analysts believe that the two major global economies in 2026 will see different trajectories: for example, the US economic growth forecast has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.3%, driven by a recovering labor market, the implementation of corporate tax cuts, and strong investment demand spurred by the AI application race;

Meanwhile, China's economic growth forecast has been raised from 4.3% to 4.6%, mainly benefiting from the gradual easing of pessimistic US-China trade expectations and the continued deepening of export market diversification.

In contrast, the Eurozone's growth outlook remains weak, slightly adjusted from 1.0% to 1.1%, primarily constrained by ongoing trade pressures and internal economic imbalances;

Other Asian export-oriented economies may become among the few regions experiencing slower growth after the "early export" dividend diminishes.

Therefore, the report summarizes the overall characteristics of the global economy in 2026 as "uneasy calm," because the combination of global geopolitical conflicts, trade policy uncertainties, and important elections in multiple countries creates significant "fat tail risks," posing hidden threats to economic stability;

However, if artificial intelligence can deliver unexpectedly high productivity gains, it could also serve as an unexpected catalyst for global economic growth.

In summary, the core challenge for the global economy in 2026 lies in whether it can successfully shift from old growth drivers to a new model driven by fiscal policies, domestic investments, and new technologies, thereby achieving a smooth transition.

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