"Others are fearful, I am greedy," this phrase seems especially ironic during turbulent international situations, but it also hits the core.

Recently, geopolitical tensions have escalated, with US-Iran relations on the brink. Not long ago, the USD to Iranian Rial exchange rate soared directly to 1:1000055, with the Rial devaluation happening as crazily as a meme coin plummet. My message inbox exploded that day, with many friends asking if they should rush to exit the market.

What I want to say is very straightforward: these fluctuations seem like risk release, but they are certainly not a sign of imminent collapse. To understand this logic, we need to go back to the main thread of the US midterm elections.

**How Geopolitical Conflicts Stir the Crypto Market**

Looking back at history makes it clear. In January 2020, when the US drone strike killed a senior Iranian general, global markets shook, but Bitcoin actually rose by 5% over the following few trading days. At that time, some pointed out that geopolitical turmoil would lead more people to turn to crypto assets for safe haven.

Fast forward to June 2025, after the US military airstrike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Bitcoin dropped from $102,000 to $99,843, with the total market cap shrinking by 4.4%, and daily liquidation amounts soaring to $701 million. It looks terrifying, but in fact, the panic only lasted one day, and the market rebounded immediately.

The logic behind this is quite clear: short-term shocks trigger panic selling, but in the medium to long term, when traditional financial markets are turbulent, funds will inevitably seek alternatives. Bitcoin, as a "digital safe haven asset," is repeatedly validated in such moments.

**Market sentiment has bottomed out, but undercurrents are gathering**

As of early November 2025...