2026-01-14 18:33:19

Look at enough winning founders, you'll spot a pattern—always the same two types.

First kind? Too brilliant to sweat the downside. They see the opportunity so clearly, every problem feels like noise.

Second kind? Straight up can't see the danger coming. Oblivious isn't even the word—it's armor.

Both get results. Both take the swing. The gap between them? Just a different flavor of confidence.

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ContractHunter

· 01-17 17:29

Hi, isn't this just survivorship bias? What about the failed ones?

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RektButStillHere

· 01-17 08:02

ngl That's just me, the second typical... can't see where the trap is at all, rushing in blindly.

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DAOdreamer

· 01-17 04:28

To be honest, I've seen both types, and the difference isn't that big... The people who actually win are just those who happen to be lucky enough to catch the right timing. Confidence is just a post-hoc rationalization.

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SolidityJester

· 01-15 00:20

Basically, it's survivor bias—penalize me with a drink. There are way too many failed founders.

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JustHodlIt

· 01-14 19:00

To be honest, I've seen both types, but the first one is more prone to failure... that kind of being too clever backfires.

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BlockTalk

· 01-14 19:00

Nah, these two are really the perfect examples of survivor bias; even the founders who have died were once this confident.

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UnluckyMiner

· 01-14 18:58

NGL, both are survivor bias, right? Failed founders are also confident.

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WalletDetective

· 01-14 18:49

Basically, these two types of people are just two perspectives of survivor bias. Even the failures are this confident.

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BearEatsAll

· 01-14 18:48

To be honest, I've seen both types, but the ones that can actually make money are often the second kind...

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ForkMaster

· 01-14 18:39

In plain terms, it's just gamblers' mentality disguised as entrepreneurial spirit. Over the years of raising three kids, I've seen too many project teams; very few truly successful ones haven't been walking a tightrope. The key is whether they can manage downside risks—I've seen many so-called clever founders during bear markets in mining, who dare to raise funds despite failing contract code audits. And the result... Sigh, I won't say more.

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