2026-01-14 17:27:54

There is a major event tonight at 23:00—the final ruling on the tariff policy is coming.

According to data from the prediction market, the probability of losing the case on the tariff policy has soared to 72%, which means that the tariffs already collected are likely to be refunded. At first glance, this seems positive, but the underlying logic is quite complex.

**Recent pressures are here:**

Last year, similar policy news was a bullish signal for the crypto market, but now the situation has changed. Returning money to importers sounds simple, but the actual process is full of uncertainties. The market's previous expectation of "liquidity easing" may be disappointed. Funds will withdraw from risk assets, and combined with policy uncertainties, this puts short-term pressure on the crypto market.

**But from another perspective:**

The weakening of the tariff system will promote the reduction of global financial frictions, which is a long-term positive for risk assets and the decentralized narrative framework.

**Most importantly:** We are now at a crossroads where the old logic is collapsing, and the new logic has yet to take shape. Volatility will be very intense. Don't be tempted to leverage up due to this uncertainty; staying stable through this phase is the right approach.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 01-17 08:32

A 72% chance of losing the lawsuit and just dumping the market? That logic is backwards. Short-term bloodshed, long-term transparency.

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LiquidationTherapist

· 01-15 23:23

There's a 72% chance it sounds pretty certain, but when it comes to execution, it's still a mess—this routine has been seen too many times. I dare not leverage, but I also dare not fully liquidate. Just hold the position awkwardly and wait to watch the show. The old logic is collapsing, and the new logic hasn't formed yet. To put it nicely, it's a fork in the road; in reality, it's just a casino. I need to get some sleep before 23:00 tonight. When I wake up, I'll see how much is left in the account. Refund the money to the importer? I always feel that retail investors are the ones who end up losing in the end.

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FlashLoanPhantom

· 01-14 17:55

72% losing case? The bailout expectation has fallen through, now it depends on who runs away first.

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BlockchainRetirementHome

· 01-14 17:42

72% losing case? That means funds are about to withdraw. In the short term, we need to hold tight. --- It's another moment where an old logic collapses. The air is filled with uncertainty, feeling a bit overwhelming. --- Long-term benefits but short-term losses, a classic sandwich scenario, waiting to be squeezed. --- It's uncomfortable even without leverage. This is when things are most likely to go wrong, so stay calm. --- See the outcome at 23:00, but I think the market has already priced in the expectations... --- Returning money to importers? Sounds simple, but it can take three months to sort out. Crypto folks are too optimistic. --- A fork is just a fork. When volatility is intense, no one profits. Let's see who keeps a steady mindset. --- Last year's good news now turns into pressure. The contrast is really big. After so many lessons, some still want to add leverage?

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ser_ngmi

· 01-14 17:31

72% losing cases? Looks like in the short term, it's going to be cut off. The water release dream is shattered.

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DisillusiionOracle

· 01-14 17:28

A 72% probability sounds impressive, but the real reversal often lies in this kind of expectation gap. The market sentiment has long been priced in, so it might not be as exciting as you imagine when the time comes. --- Basically, short-term no relay, long-term story still ongoing. The key is who dares to buy the dip at this point; I, for one, don't dare. --- Another old trick: "policy favorable but dumping," I've seen it too many times. Let's wait for the dust to settle before talking. --- No leverage +1, those who leverage up at this time are basically just trying to give away money. Volatility is just volatility; if you can't hold, just cut your losses decisively. --- If the 72% really holds, it means the market is underestimating the possibility of a reversal. It feels like something is brewing in the shadows. --- Money returning to importers? How does it flow back to the exchange? I can't quite follow the logic. It's probably faster to just hype up some virtual stuff.

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