Ethereum aiming for $40,000 by 2030 sounds bold, but the structure matters more than the headline

Standard Chartered has projected that $ETH could reach $40,000 by 2030, a valuation that would imply a network size approaching $5 trillion. That forecast stands in sharp contrast to current price behavior, where ETH is still working through nearby supply rather than trending freely. The gap between the long-term thesis and present structure is where the real discussion sits.

For $ETH to reach that level, demand cannot be episodic. With a circulating supply of roughly 120 million ETH, moving from today’s market cap toward multi-trillion territory requires trillions in net marginal demand that stays in the system. That means capital must be retained through staking, long-duration holding, and repeated cycles where new demand turns into inactive supply rather than exiting during corrections. Without that dynamic, price expansion struggles to compound.

In the short to medium term, ETH is rebuilding after a multi-month downtrend. Price recently pushed into a major supply zone near $3,350, an area that has capped upside before. A 7% daily move following recent CPI data helped ETH reclaim rising trend support, keeping higher lows intact. At the time of writing, price trades near $3,325, compressed just below overhead supply.

If ETH can reclaim $3,350 with sustained acceptance, rotation toward $3,600 becomes structurally justified. Holding above that level would open a path toward the $4,000 region. Momentum indicators remain constructive rather than overheated, suggesting controlled demand. Failure to reclaim supply, however, would keep ETH range-bound and delay expansion.

The takeaway is simple. Standard Chartered’s $40,000 call depends on sustained capital retention, not short-term rallies. The structure can support continuation, but only if reclaimed levels turn into long-term support rather than temporary milestones.