2026-01-14 13:29:43

Looking at XMR's trend, the 720 price level is very likely to become a key high point in the past four years. Currently, the market's 5x leverage long positions are quite substantial. If there is a significant pullback here, the risk will be highly concentrated.

From a historical cycle perspective, four-year cycle tops are often accompanied by leveraged liquidations and large-scale exits by retail investors. Those high-leverage long positions built around the 3-400 price range have almost no buffer space once downward pressure is released.

Interestingly, many traders see this as a signal of a long-term bottom, but they fail to realize that this crowded long structure at high levels is itself the biggest risk. Instead of blindly adding to positions, it's better to first consider where your stop-loss is. If this correction really starts, it might take four years to break through this level again. So, the current choice, to some extent, determines the outcome for a long period ahead.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

14 Likes

Reward
14
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

GasFeeCrier

· 01-17 13:29

The 720 price level is indeed a bit scary. A bunch of people are stacking 5x leverage here, it feels like they are setting a bomb for themselves.

View OriginalReply0

BearWhisperGod

· 01-16 23:28

720 this level is indeed a knife edge, the bulls' accumulation is a bit too fierce --- No, why can't so many people see that this is a trap? --- Rebound in four years? Then I'll just set my stop-loss first --- I'm very familiar with this crowded feeling at high levels, it's always like this that they cut the leeks --- Add to position? Don't even think about it, I need to see where the buffer zone is --- The margin call wave is coming, it feels like retail investors are about to be cut again --- If 720 can't break, I think there's really no support below

View OriginalReply0

0xSherlock

· 01-16 22:19

The 720 level is indeed crowded, but it's too pessimistic to say it will break in four years. --- Another "all-time high," I would be surprised if I believed it this time. --- Don't add to your position blindly if you haven't thought about stop-loss; does anyone listen when this is said every round? --- More than 5x long positions piled up like this, liquidation is only a matter of time. --- The bullish structure is tense, but who can accurately catch the bottom? --- This analytical logic has no problem; it's just that predicting a four-year cycle is too absolute. --- It seems to be advising everyone to be cautious, but actually, it's hinting that the price will fall. --- Whether 720 breaks or not doesn't matter; what's important is whether your psychological stop-loss is strong enough.

View OriginalReply0

NotFinancialAdvice

· 01-14 13:59

Can 720 really hold this level? It feels a bit risky. --- Once high leverage long positions break, retail investors are really going to get wiped out. --- It's the same story every time, always talking about a four-year cycle, but what about? --- Not adding to positions is the best strategy; wait for a breakdown signal. --- That's why I don't touch leverage—it's damn dangerous. --- With 5x leverage, once it crashes, no one can escape. --- Pits one after another, my goodness. --- Where should stop-losses be set, everyone? That's the key.

View OriginalReply0

DeFiDoctor

· 01-14 13:56

That position at 720 is indeed a bit risky. Symptoms of leverage liquidation are all there. When it's crowded at high levels, this is what happens. Retail investors are still adding positions there. No one has clearly thought through the stop-loss issue.

View OriginalReply0

DAOdreamer

· 01-14 13:54

720 this level is really a trap, excessive leverage long positions are too terrifying --- It's the same rhetoric again, only four years to break through? Why does it feel so pessimistic every time --- No, just set the stop-loss and that's it, why bother to hesitate for so long --- The crowded bullish structure is correct, but everyone wants to buy the dip, it all depends on who gives up first --- This kind of analysis is given every cycle, but the real problem is that it can't be pushed down --- There is indeed strong resistance around 720, but don't over-interpret the historical cycle stuff --- Got it, it's another reason for us not to add positions, but in the end, it still keeps rising --- The key is when the big players move, retail investors can only follow and die

View OriginalReply0

ResearchChadButBroke

· 01-14 13:36

720 is just a trap. With so many bulls crowded in, who dares to add to their position?

View OriginalReply0

MerkleDreamer

· 01-14 13:32

Position 720 is indeed risky. I checked the holdings data, and the longs are already stacked to the brim. It seems that many people are still sleepwalking. If it crashes down, it will blow up directly. Have you set your stop-losses, everyone? Otherwise, you'll be crying too late. The idea of only turning around in four years sounds very hopeless. Instead of chasing highs, it's better to wait for a more comfortable entry point.

View OriginalReply0