CZ confirms that the copycat season will inevitably return, but there is a prerequisite that market investors need to be cautious of

CZ made a clear statement about the Shanzhai Season in the latest Chinese AMA: markets are cyclical, and there will definitely be future Shanzhai Seasons. This judgment may seem simple, but it reflects an important rule of the crypto market. However, he also emphasized that the scope and magnitude are still to be observed, which contains an important tip for investors.

The Cyclicality of Shanzhai Season is Inevitable

CZ’s view is based on a fundamental understanding: markets are cyclical. This is not new, but re-emphasizing it in the current market environment is meaningful. He believes that future public chains and tokens with real-world applications will have development opportunities, so Shanzhai Season, as part of the market cycle, will definitely occur.

The logic behind this judgment is very clear. In each bull market, funds tend to flow gradually from mainstream coins to emerging projects and story-driven tokens. When the public starts paying attention to smaller coins, Shanzhai Season forms. From this perspective, as long as the market continues to cycle, Shanzhai Season is inevitable.

But Not All “Shanzhai” Are Worth Pursuing

Here, attention should be paid to CZ’s wording. He specifically mentioned that “tokens with real-world applications” will develop, which means not all Shanzhai coins have a chance. Relevant information shows that CZ commented on the meme coin phenomenon, stating that only a very small number of meme coins have real value, and the failure rate of meme coins exceeds 90%.

This is a very critical data point. It indicates that during Shanzhai Season, most projects are destined to fail. Although CZ is not opposed to meme coins and even likes meme culture, he clearly pointed out that blindly following trends and creating meme coins based on his tweets will almost certainly lead investors to lose money.

The “Scope and Magnitude” of Shanzhai Season Are Uncertain

CZ especially emphasized that “the scope and magnitude are still to be observed.” This statement is worth pondering. It implies:

• Not all small coins will rise; only some will perform
• The potential increase is uncertain and may not be as aggressive as historical cycles
• Market participation and enthusiasm may differ from previous years

This is essentially a cold shower for overly optimistic investors. Shanzhai Season may come, but it may not be as crazy as expected.

The Fundamentals Are Worth Watching

From CZ’s recent statements, his focus is on the actual value of projects. He is optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $200,000 and about public chains with real applications, but remains cautious about purely speculative projects.

This reflects a reality: in market cycles, the projects that ultimately succeed are those with solid fundamentals. Most failures during Shanzhai Season are often projects lacking real-world use cases, driven solely by concepts and hot trends.

Summary

CZ’s view can be summarized as: Shanzhai Season will definitely occur as part of the market cycle, but this does not mean every Shanzhai coin has a chance. Investors need to distinguish between “tokens with real-world applications” and “pure concept coins,” the latter having a failure rate exceeding 90%. The uncertainty in scope and magnitude also suggests that this round of Shanzhai Season may not be as extreme as previous years. The key is to be selective rather than blindly following trends.