Bitcoin's strong performance yesterday definitely made headlines. Surging to $96,000, breaking through that long-held key range, short-term positive signals without a doubt. But behind this rally, there's a more interesting topic that's been overlooked—the four-year cycle, is it still valid?

To discuss this, we need to look back at the records. The four-year cycle theory circulating in the crypto world is basically a "consensus": since Bitcoin's inception, almost every major top has occurred roughly every four years. Let's look at the history:

In late November 2013, it peaked at $1200, then fell all the way to August 2015, dropping below $170. This bear market lasted a full 2 years. By December 2017, the price skyrocketed to a historic high of $19,000, but throughout 2018, it was in a downtrend, bottoming out at just over $3,000—another year of bear market. Looking further back, the top in November 2021 was $69,000, then it declined to a bottom of $15,000 in early January 2023, roughly a one-year cycle.

The pattern seems to exist. So, during the big drop from November to December last year, experienced traders in the community kept saying "Here we go again," that this cycle was ending, and a bear market would follow in the next year. New players hadn't experienced those previous cycles, and when they heard these statements and looked at the candlestick charts, they believed it. That's how the market formed a strong consensus.

However, looking back now, this logic seems a bit fragile under scrutiny. That's also why I previously wrote several articles discussing how the four-year cycle might be broken. The comments on those articles are quite interesting—some people are firmly bearish, expecting a bigger crash, citing opinions from various KOLs to counter. But history doesn't simply repeat itself; it only evolves in different ways.