2026-01-14 03:32:35

The IP just surged to 4.18 and then quickly plummeted, leaving a frighteningly long upper shadow. Trading volume indeed increased significantly, but the price just couldn't hold. This situation clearly indicates that it's not the bulls making a serious push; rather, it looks like the main force is dumping at high levels.

**What does the candlestick pattern indicate?**

The sell pressure above 4.10 is ridiculously strong. The long upper shadow with volume on the 4-hour chart clearly shows that retail investors trapped above are eager to cut losses, and the bulls' attempt to break through is immediately blocked. Even more painfully, trading volume doubled, but the price retraced more than half of the gains, indicating that active buying has been completely suppressed by selling pressure, and upward momentum has been exhausted. Once the 4.00 level is broken, the price will likely test the support at 3.70 directly.

**The unlock schedule is set, what is the main force doing?**

A large unlock is scheduled for mid-January, which is known as a bearish factor in the market. This sudden surge is less about initiating a rally and more about creating liquidity before the unlock to allow large holders to offload at higher prices. As the unlock date approaches, panic selling could erupt at any time. Currently, any rebound is just an opportunity to escape.

**How to operate?**

Short positions can be entered gradually around 4.00, adding more if it rebounds to the 4.15 area. Place stop-loss at 4.30 (must effectively hold and break through today's high) to hedge against long positions. Once it falls below 3.90 with no rebound, it indicates a top has formed, and the target shifts directly to 3.50. Take profit at the first target of 3.65, with the core target at 3.00 (expected unlock wave level).

**Final words**

Long upper shadow + volume expansion and stagnation are classic sell signals. Don't be fooled by short-term rallies; in the face of large unlocks, all volume-less rises are just traps to lure buyers.

IP-1.86%

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HashRatePhilosopher

· 01-17 03:21

The long upper shadow on 4.18 is really impressive, clearly showing that the main force is fleeing, while retail investors are still foolishly waiting for a rebound. --- The unlocking wave is coming, and this rally is just liquidity sent to the big players, don’t overthink it. --- It’s truly outrageous that some people still call for a bull when the sell signals are so obvious. --- Breaking 4.00 will directly head to 3.70, already in a spectator stance. --- Stagnant price with increased volume, a classic dump technique, I’ve seen this pattern too many times. --- Before the January unlocking wave, what technical analysis are you talking about? Panic selling is coming. --- Don’t chase short-term rebounds, they’re just opportunities to escape. --- Short positions should be entered in batches at 4.00, this decline has no suspense. --- A long upper shadow with volume at high levels indicates nothing good. --- Main force is offloading at high levels, retail investors are still praying for a rebound, what a gap.

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LowCapGemHunter

· 01-16 11:51

Is this the same old trick again, the classic move of dumping at high levels? It's getting really annoying to watch. --- Crash on 4.18? I saw it coming long ago. Such a ridiculous long wick, why wait to run? --- Half of the volume has been pulled back, the main force is really incredible. Someone is still chasing the high, hilarious. --- The unlocking wave is coming, this rebound is truly a chance to escape, hurry and sell. --- Entering short at 4.00? I think it's worth a try, but risk management is still necessary. --- I think the 3.00 target is unlikely, but 3.65 should be reachable. Add to positions on the rebound. --- The feeling of trap-building is too strong. I usually don't touch this kind of market, just watching the show. --- Long wick + stagnation, indeed a sell signal, but it also depends on whether the support below can hold, or it will break straight through.

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POAPlectionist

· 01-15 23:27

This long upper shadow clearly indicates that the main force is testing the market; retail investors are too many in their panic selling to hold it down. --- It's the same old trick again—if the volume increases but the price doesn't rise, it means a sell-off is coming. With the unlocking wave approaching, who dares to buy in? --- I never trusted the 4.18 level; all the typical signals of high-level distribution are in place. --- Really, the trading volume doubles but the price still retraces? This is obviously a trap to lure buyers. Expect it to break below 4.00. --- Shorts enter at 4.00; this unlocking wave will only end when the panicked retail investors get shaken out and cut their losses. --- They always deceive like this—long upper shadow plus volume expansion with stagnant price, then start storytelling. If you ask me, just look at 3.50. --- I believe the main force is distributing at high levels, but the problem is, why are retail investors always so slow to react?

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OneBlockAtATime

· 01-14 04:02

It's the same old trick, volume increase means selling off, retail investors just become the bagholders? --- When the crash happened on 4.18, everyone was stunned. With the unlocking wave coming, we need to be even more cautious. --- I just want to know who still dares to buy in at 4.15. Are they crazy? --- After seeing so many long upper shadows, I should have learned my lesson. The signal lights for the main players dumping are as bright as signal flares. --- Honestly, now any rebound is just a window to escape. Don't be fooled into buying in. --- Can the 3.70 support hold? I bet it won't. --- As the unlocking day approaches, all positive news is just clouds. There's nothing wrong with being bearish.

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GrayscaleArbitrageur

· 01-14 04:01

Here we go again, the old trick of selling at high positions... Retail investors are still holding the bag. Hey, that long wick on 4.18 really looks fierce, but it feels like a paper tiger. Once the unlocking trend arrives, everything will be doomed. I should have seen through it earlier. This wave of short positions has some substance, but I still think 3.00 is too risky. Are the big players really that smart, getting manipulated every day?

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MevSandwich

· 01-14 03:59

It's the same old trick, a high-volume jump and plunge—this move is really common, and the main players are just playing these tricks. Wait, is this unlocking trend real? If it really crashes down to 4.18, it will go straight to zero. Long upper shadow candles are basically testing the market; retail investors get caught in the trap and then get cut. That 3.65 level feels hard to hold; looking down, could it drop straight to 3.00? That's pretty harsh. I just want to know if any brothers chased in at the high of 4.15; how do you feel now?

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DefiEngineerJack

· 01-14 03:58

well, *actually* that wick formation is textbook distribution pattern if you've studied order flow properly. the volume spike with zero price retention? that's literally what happens when whales exit positions. people sleep on this stuff fr

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Layer3Dreamer

· 01-14 03:49

theoretically speaking, if we map this price action onto a recursive SNARK verification model... that wick structure is basically proving the state transition failed, ngl. the volume spike without sustained momentum? classic liquidity drain before unlock—reminds me of how cross-rollup bridges handle contested states, except here it's just cascading liquidations lmao

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