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The Truth Behind the US CPI Data

On January 13th, Beijing time, the US December CPI year-over-year growth rate was fixed at 2.7%, and the core CPI was also 2.7%. At first glance, it perfectly aligned with expectations. But what is hidden behind this "perfection"? Economists are beginning to challenge these figures—the statistical disruptions during the government shutdown in November directly distorted the data. This rebound is likely a false recovery, and the true inflation situation remains in the awkward position of "moderate but above 2%."

The market reacted immediately: rate cuts are off the table. The Federal Reserve's January end-of-month policy meeting is essentially locked in, and the rebound in core CPI has directly killed market expectations for rate cuts.

On the asset market side, there are interesting developments—gold once plunged but then stabilized at the historic high of $4600, supported by central bank gold purchases and safe-haven demand; US stock futures remain resilient, as investors shift their focus to earnings season expectations, with the AI industry chain and pro-cyclical sectors each operating independently; the US dollar index slightly rebounded to the 98-99 level, with short-term interest rate differentials still supporting it for now, but persistent pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve has planted long-term risks for exchange rate credibility.

The most ironic part of this CPI data is that—while it appears to meet the target—it actually exposes the stubbornness of US inflation. How much truth is hidden in the statistical revisions after the government shutdown remains a question hanging over the market.

What do you think of this data? Can gold continue to break above $4600?