According to the latest data from CME futures markets, there has been a new change in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's recent policy.

In the January meeting, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged was as high as 97.2%, with only a 2.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut — this indicates that a shift to an easing policy is unlikely in the short term. However, looking ahead to March, the situation begins to loosen: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 26.8%, while the probability of holding rates steady drops to 72.5%, and the chance of a larger 50 basis point cut remains very low at only 0.7%.

For the cryptocurrency market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have always been an important indicator. An easing cycle typically boosts market risk appetite and increases investors' enthusiasm for allocating to crypto assets; conversely, the opposite is also true. Current data shows that policy is gradually shifting, but the pace of change remains within a manageable range. The market needs to closely monitor subsequent economic data and official statements.