Lighter's airdrop plan has triggered a chain reaction in the derivatives market. The most direct signal is the KPI decay phenomenon—those trading volumes built up by incentives are shrinking rapidly, indicating that user stickiness is far below expectations.

What does this mean? Future new tokens issued by derivatives platforms will find it difficult to maintain the same value narrative. The entire industry's incentive expectations have been collectively suppressed. Once the market realizes this, the implicit incentive space for each platform will be severely compressed.

The rebalancing is already underway. Trading volume will inevitably gradually concentrate on those truly viable, long-term competitive veteran platforms—what are called "lindy winners." Those newcomers relying solely on subsidies will find it increasingly difficult.