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#密码资产动态追踪 What has Wall Street been up to lately? They directly interpret Trump's policy signals as a sign that "the economy is about to take off." The market trading logic in mid-January is very clear—this president plans to aggressively stimulate the economy and consumption before mid-year, giving cyclical stocks a chance to turn around.
From calls to cut interest rates to restricting credit card interest rates, the new government's approach revolves around one core idea: keep the economy hot while easing the cost of living for ordinary people. Investment banks have highlighted the focus: cyclical sectors like industrials, raw materials, and non-essential consumer goods are expected to rise, while defensive stocks should step aside.
Raymond James's latest report straightforwardly concludes—policy support + growth signals in hand, the economic cycle recovery is basically a done deal; UBS is more direct, calling it "serving the election," with voters' top concerns—prices, mortgages, and oil prices—being the key.
You ask what to do about bank stocks? Trump's restrictions on credit card interest rates indeed hit banks hard, but institutions see this as a short-term pain. JPMorgan Chase, on the other hand, says it's a good time to buy bank stocks, and they haven't given up on cyclical stocks either—low inflation will free up ample room for economic stimulation.
Of course, the S&P 500 is nearing the 7000-point mark, but BTIG poured some cold water: historically, five times hitting an integer level, four times they pulled back. But the consensus among institutions is very firm—don't fear short-term volatility. Policies to promote growth + corporate earnings support suggest that cyclical stocks are very likely to be the main players in this round.