#比特币价格预测与走势 Seeing this analysis from PlanB, I have to calmly say—this logic of "history repeating itself for a 10x rally" is exactly the kind of cognitive trap that easily leads people astray.

I was also fooled by this kind of rhetoric in my early years. It sounds very professional, right? Using correlation data, historical benchmarks, decoupling from the stock market at $87,500, and comparing to the divergence at $1,000 back then... it all sounds reasonable and well-supported. But the key issue is: the market structure has changed.

Back then, Bitcoin was a niche asset, institutions hadn't entered on a large scale, liquidity was limited, which naturally led to extreme deviations. Now? ETFs, pensions, and large asset allocations are already part of the ecosystem, and changes in correlation might actually indicate that Bitcoin has become a "mainstream" asset, not a precursor.

PlanB himself also admits the most critical point—"If the correlation relationship has been structurally broken, this round of movement may differ from history." Isn’t this essentially saying: my model might be invalid?

Don’t misunderstand me; I’m not saying Bitcoin has no chance to rise. But relying on "history repeating" and exponential gains as expectations is often the best scythe for harvesting retail investors. Those who truly last long never bet on a 10x rally; they only care whether their risk exposure can withstand the market.

Prices will go up and down, but avoiding the trap of greed is far more valuable than just predicting the right direction.