2026-01-13 09:22:37

Participating in meme projects on public chains like BSC involves observing the first wave of sentiment and the second wave of counter-sentiment—this is almost an unchanging rule.

The relationship between retail investors and whales is essentially a fish-to-knife relationship. The nature of the fish doesn't change; only the person holding the knife changes.

Whether the second wave can push the price up depends on one core logic: has the main force in the first phase already exited? If the previous whales are still around, where do new entrants get their low-cost chips? The higher the participation and the louder the calls, the greater the pressure the market can bear, and the less room and probability there is for later entrants to take over. This is purely a supply and demand relationship.

For those who want to intervene in the second wave, without a retracement of about 50-80% as a signal, don't even think about it. This number isn't my saying; it's the market's. If the retracement isn't deep enough, it indicates that the exit isn't thorough, and the game isn't over yet.

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quiet_lurker

· 01-16 05:59

Only move when there's a 50-80% retracement; this threshold really discourages me.

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MEVHunterNoLoss

· 01-15 09:10

Fish Knife's analysis is spot on, but to be honest, who among retail investors isn't doomed to be wiped out? Only dare to move after a 50-80% retracement? That's better to just sleep through it; by the time you wake up, it's all gone. The second wave of buying the dip—either you understand it or you're just one loss away from having an account with losses. The signals indicating the market maker's exit are so clear—why does someone always rush to send themselves to the slaughterhouse? The so-called "local dog" pattern sounds nice, but in reality, it's just two words—gambling.

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DegenDreamer

· 01-13 09:51

Fish Knife's argument is to the point, but to be honest, most people can't really tell when they should run. I've seen the number 50-80% many times, but I haven't seen anyone actually wait until then.

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StableNomad

· 01-13 09:26

nah the 50-80% drawdown gatekeep is real... reminds me of UST in May, everyone waiting for "the dip" that never came. risk-adjusted returns on these bsc shitcoins are basically negative once you factor in gas fees lmao

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