#稳定币市场扩张 Whoa, is the prediction market really about to take off? The 2026 World Cup will be the true stress test!

Looking at these numbers, Kalshi's valuation has doubled to $11 billion, Polymarket is also pushing for higher valuations, and even Robinhood has generated $300 million annually in event trading revenue—that's the real traffic gateway. Sports contracts are booming with volume, while political/macroeconomic hedge markets are also absorbing funds... This is the dual engine we've been waiting for.

But there's a key point—regulation is the real watershed. US states are cracking down now; Connecticut and Nevada are banning these activities, which shows that without a compliant framework, scaling is impossible. DraftKings and FanDuel can maintain stability because they know how to operate within permitted boundaries. Those independent platforms that only boast are now seeking distribution partnerships... Frankly, platforms with existing users and KYC channels are the winners.

The key is stablecoins. Visa has started settling USDC on-chain—what does this mean? Deposit and withdrawal friction will disappear, and 24/7 trading will become truly feasible. But don’t celebrate too early; the European Central Bank is wary of private stablecoin expansion, so 2026 is more likely to see a gradual integration with "strong licensing and strong auditing."

The 2026 World Cup will be the real system-level stress test—liquidity, settlement integrity, cross-jurisdictional compliance, none can be missed. Only those that can operate stably under peak loads and strict regulation will be the final winners. I favor projects backed by large platforms with a genuine user base... Independent entrepreneurs will find it very challenging at this point.