Cattle Futures Pop Back with Solid Thursday Momentum

Live cattle contracts made a strong recovery on Thursday, climbing between 75 cents and $1.25 as market sentiment improved. The rally extended across the board, with feeder cattle showing even more impressive gains ranging from $1.95 to $2.90 per contract. Meanwhile, the cash market remained subdued early in the week, with limited dressed beef transactions reported at $365 in the North and live cattle ranging between $228-$232. The Friday morning Fed Cattle Exchange online auction failed to register any completed trades, though bidding activity came in at $230.

Feeder Market Strengthens While Indexes Climb

Feeder cattle contracts joined the upward movement, with the CME Feeder Cattle Index posting notable gains. On January 7, the index advanced $4.92 to settle at $368.07, reflecting renewed buying interest in the segment. The broader strength suggests market participants are positioning ahead of upcoming seasonal demand patterns.

Export Dynamics and International Demand

Export sales data for 2026 beef contracts revealed interesting market activity. The week of January 1 saw 10,600 MT of beef change hands, with South Korea emerging as the leading buyer at 4,400 MT. Mexico followed with 1,600 MT in purchases. Recent shipment activity showed 12,695 MT dispatched during the final days of 2025 and an additional 146 MT on January 1 alone.

Looking at historical performance, October beef exports totaled 201 million pounds on a carcass basis—marking the lowest volume for that month since 2015. In contrast, beef imports (not converted to carcass basis) reached 136,972 MT, representing a 6.68% increase compared to September levels, signaling robust international demand for imported product.

Beef Pricing and Wholesale Markets

USDA wholesale boxed beef prices posted higher levels in Thursday’s afternoon trading session. Choice cuts climbed $2.51 to $356.79, while Select grades increased $2.78 to $352.06. The Choice-to-Select spread narrowed to $4.73, suggesting fairly balanced pricing dynamics between the two grades.

Slaughter Activity and Weekly Trends

Federal cattle slaughter on Thursday totaled an estimated 117,000 head, bringing the week-to-date cumulative to 465,000 head. This represented a decline of 10,732 head compared to the corresponding week last year, indicating moderating throughput levels.

Contract Settlement Overview

The cattle futures pop back extended across multiple contract months:

• Feb 26 Live Cattle: $235.275, up $0.750
• Apr 26 Live Cattle: $236.225, up $1.050
• Jun 26 Live Cattle: $231.275, up $1.250
• Jan 26 Feeder Cattle: $362.475, up $2.875
• Mar 26 Feeder Cattle: $357.725, up $2.225
• Apr 26 Feeder Cattle: $356.625, up $1.950

Health and Regulatory Updates

APHIS surveillance data from Thursday’s update documented increased activity related to New World Screwworm cases across multiple Mexican states, including Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi. Continued monitoring remains essential for the livestock industry.