2026-01-12 10:27:14

BTC recently surged to 94,000, and many people are extremely excited. But I have to pour cold water on this—this wave is very likely to pull back near 90,000 for a shakeout, and only after filling the CME gap will it continue to rise.

My thinking is like this. In the short term, the 90,000 to 95,000 range faces significant resistance. If it can't break through, the correction target is around 90,000, clearing out the floating positions before rebounding to push towards 98,000. But from a long-term perspective, I am bearish—this move is just a rebound within a bear market, and going up is an opportunity to short.

It is precisely because of this judgment that I now only dare to open 20x leverage on my longs. You should know I used to dare to open 125x. The higher the market goes, the more cautious I become with my positions. Why? Because the risk is continuously accumulating.

The most painful thing is this kind of oscillating market. Chasing the rally and selling on the dip easily leads to being slapped back and forth—if it goes up, you lose; if it comes down, you also lose. So is there a way to enjoy the rebound while protecting against a sharp decline?

Yes, there is. I use hedging to steadily profit from longs around 90,000, and even if it later pulls back, I’m not afraid.

The logic is simple. The current direction of BTC is actually ambiguous—it might surge to 98,000 or fall back to 80,000. If leverage is too high, the risk of liquidation is too great; if it’s too low, you miss out on the move, and idle funds are a waste of opportunity cost. At this point, a hedging tool is needed.

My approach is this: use BNB as collateral, borrow stablecoins to add to my position. What are the benefits? The borrowing cost is only 0.41%, which is almost zero-cost funding to increase my position. If BTC really rises to 98,000, my 20x long profits, and the borrowed funds also help me amplify gains.

But what if BTC falls back to 90,000? Set a stop-loss on the long, and the loss is controllable. Meanwhile, my financial products continue to generate income, with an annualized rate of over 20%. When the market drops to a suitable level, I will gradually build positions using the income from these products. This creates a good balance between risk and reward.

In short, in uncertain markets, hedging is not about making big money, but about surviving longer.

BTC-1.18%

BNB-1.48%

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SellLowExpert

· 01-14 04:37

This guy makes some sense, dropping from 125x to 20x directly. The change in mindset is indeed a sign of learning. The hedging strategy sounds good, but how many can really stick to it? Most people are still driven by emotions. I agree with the long-term bearish view; those who got excited on 9.4 should really calm down. The move of collateralizing BNB to borrow stablecoins is like playing a probability game, earning some financial returns as insurance fees. The idea is not bad. But I'm worried—what if the market crashes another 20,000 points? Even 20x leverage can't hold up, and hedging won't save you.

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LiquidatedTwice

· 01-13 06:56

Excited over just 94,000? Bro, you're still too young. I've seen too many washout cycles like this. Cutting from 125x to 20x leverage—that's real understanding of how to live, unlike some people who keep shouting about bottom-fishing and then get liquidated. I'm also using the strategy of adding positions with stablecoins. Just worried someone might really go and gamble 9.8 million with 125x leverage, haha. Honestly, it's still the same old story: only by staying alive can you make money. If you die, everything's pointless.

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ChainPoet

· 01-12 10:57

Haha, daring to play with 125x, now cautious at 20x. This change shows what's really on my mind. Hedging sounds good, but using stablecoins to add positions... can it really outperform investment returns? Living long is indeed important, but I think this 90,000 support level is likely to be broken.

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 01-12 10:56

Ha, this operation is indeed stable, dropping from 125x to 20x, the change in mindset is quite obvious. Really, accumulating risk is a valid point, just worried about one wave not being controlled and causing a blow-up. Hedging sounds like a good strategy, but is a 0.41% borrowing cost really that low? It's a bit hard to believe. Waiting for a pullback to build positions is the smart way to go, but I'm afraid if the pullback doesn't happen, I might end up chasing the high again. These days, living is more important than making money. I really haven't figured out this point, which is why I blew up my position.

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RatioHunter

· 01-12 10:55

The 94,000 level is a false breakout; it feels like a trap to lure more buyers and shake out the weak hands. Don't get carried away by FOMO. Dropping from 125x to 20x leverage—I'm impressed. Only those who truly understand the risks can do that. Volatile markets are the most annoying, with friction both ways. Without hedging, it's pure suicidal trading. The idea of collateralizing BNB to borrow stablecoins is indeed clever. It's like earning passive income while still participating in the market—this is the right way to survive longer. I'm skeptical about 98,000; I feel the gap at 80,000 needs to be filled. A 20% annualized return on investment is the baseline—no matter how much you lose, you won't die. This combination is really stable. Good hedging is like insurance; poor hedging is a black hole for funds. Long-term bearish but still willing to go long in the short term? That’s the art of contradiction. Instead of chasing up to 94,000, it's better to wait for a shakeout opportunity. Lowering the cost basis increases the chance of winning later. Honestly, this is just betting on CME gap fill, and then a real bull market will follow—it's a logically consistent strategy.

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fork_in_the_road

· 01-12 10:32

This guy cut from 125x to 20x, really understanding life now. --- I respect this hedging logic, but is 0.41% borrowing cost really stable? Won't the interest rate jump later? --- Easy to say, the real test is whether you can hold your nerve during a pullback and not chase the trade. --- I believe in a 90,000 washout, but I'm just worried another black swan will hit and push it back to the 8s. --- Is an annualized 20% financial product reliable? These days, anyone daring to boast that number better be prepared to test it. --- Someone went from 125x to 20x, must have been liquidated in between, just not saying it out loud. --- The hedging idea is good, but the question is whether your mindset can keep up during execution. --- Borrow stablecoins against BNB collateral, how much initial capital do you need to get this running? --- Always talking about living long, but when volatility hits, you still get slapped in the face. No way around it. --- I just want to ask, has this brother ever encountered a collapse that hedging couldn't save?

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