## Bitcoin in 2025: Standard Chartered's $200,000 USD Dream Disappears

Standard Chartered's ambitious vision of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 USD by the end of 2025 seems to be just a pipe dream. The reality of the market is far from the optimistic forecasts – Bitcoin is trading around the $90,000 USD mark, with the latest technical analysis showing a price near $90.69K, far from the expected figure. The bank has just announced a downward revision of its price target to $100,000 USD, a less impressive retreat, and the path to that goal is becoming increasingly treacherous.

## Corporate buying momentum has weakened

The race among major crypto players – companies actively accumulating Bitcoin – appears to have stalled. Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, points out that conglomerates like MicroStrategy are no longer ramping up their purchases as before. Q4 marks a correction in institutional investors' buying activity.

This raises the question: who will be the next driving force? Bitcoin ETF funds are expected to take the lead. However, the situation is not as expected. In the recent quarter, only about 50,000 BTC were purchased through ETFs, a sharp decline from the peak at the end of 2024 – when this figure reached 450,000 BTC per quarter (combined from ETFs and corporate treasuries).

## Confusing signals from monetary policy

The Federal Reserve's upcoming 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut may or may not benefit Bitcoin. If Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, a more accommodative monetary policy could support "hard" assets like cryptocurrencies. However, currently, Standard Chartered's $100,000 USD target seems more realistic than the $200,000 USD figure.

## The halving cycle is no longer a decisive factor

Geoffrey Kendrick dismisses the idea that the halving cycle will be the key to triggering Bitcoin. According to him, the "crypto winter" has ended, and the probability of a worse downturn in early 2026 is only about 6%, based on market forecast data.

## Waiting for decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee

Bitcoin's current price is stuck in a narrow range below $100,000 USD, awaiting new signals from the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday. The question is whether Standard Chartered's $100,000 USD target is the ultimate peak or just a stepping stone in a longer journey – that will be the answer both the traditional market and the crypto community are waiting for.