2026-01-12 10:04:25

Fidelity, which manages over 6 trillion yuan in assets, recently put forward a significant viewpoint: Bitcoin is very likely to have entered a "super cycle" mode.

What does this mean? The traditional four-year halving cycle pattern may already be outdated. The old script of "peaking 18 months after halving and then ending" should also be put into cold storage. What is replacing it? More sustained highs, shallower corrections—in other words, the market is showing a completely different rhythm of operation.

Fidelity summarized three core factors supporting this judgment. First is the疯狂 influx of institutional funds, with institutional-level ETP products demonstrating formidable capital attraction capabilities. Second is the qualitative shift in the US policy environment towards crypto assets, with policy friendliness reaching unprecedented heights. The third, perhaps the deepest change, is that the entire crypto market is gradually maturing, beginning to decouple more noticeably from traditional asset markets (such as the S&P index, gold, etc.), forming its own pricing logic.

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DeFiChef

· 01-14 19:11

The term "super cycle" is just for listening; similar claims were made last year, and what was the result? Institutional entry has indeed changed the game, but don't be fooled by the papers. Fidelity says decoupling is decoupling? It still seems to fluctuate with the US stocks. This round is indeed different, but who can guarantee that new black swans won't appear? High policy friendliness doesn't mean much; a single tweet can change the direction, so I can't trust it.

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-14 16:45

Institutions entering the market is not that simple this time; don't be fooled by Fidelity. --- Super cycle? Just listen, the crypto world always has new stories. --- Decoupling is the core; otherwise, how to differentiate from traditional finance? --- Wait, are these policies really friendly this time or just another way to cut the leeks? --- Sustainable high points sound good, but I trust the trend more than stories. --- Institutional ETPs' ability to attract funds is indeed strong; there's no denying that. --- The old script is outdated; we don't know yet how the new script will unfold. --- The pricing logic of mature markets... let's wait and see, everyone.

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AllTalkLongTrader

· 01-12 10:34

Super cycle? It sounds like another new way to cut leeks, but when Fidelity, the giant with 6 trillion, speaks, we really should listen. --- I don't believe institutions are entering the market; if they were, they would have bought up everything early. The fact that they are still talking about a super cycle only shows they are still building positions. --- Unprecedented policy friendliness? Last year I heard the same thing, and this year it's the same. But my coins are still the same coins. --- Does the decoupling logic hold up... It just feels like a fancy phrase; essentially, it's still following the dollar printing rhythm. --- Let me ask, is the four-year cycle really outdated, or are they just trying to pump the price up to sell off? --- Fidelity's endorsement makes me even more nervous. When institutions are eating the meat, retail investors don't get to eat the bones. --- Sustained high points with shallow corrections? Isn't that exactly the ideal situation they want? How can we take it as a definitive conclusion? --- Basically, it's just another way to get everyone to take the bag; the routine has just changed shells.

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zkNoob

· 01-12 10:27

No, this time I really half believe Fidelity's judgment... Institutional funds indeed haven't stopped this wave --- The super cycle sounds good, but what I care more about is when I can cash out and secure my gains haha --- The policy friendliness has been hyped up a bit too much, but when it really matters, it's still the same old story --- Decoupling trend? I still see the market jittering along with the US stocks... --- Wait, Fidelity itself issues ETPs and says institutional funds are pouring in madly... Isn't there some conflict of interest here? --- A giant with a market cap of 6 trillion is so optimistic, it seems the bottom might be unmissable --- Rather than listening to stories, look at the data—are ETP inflows really hitting new highs? --- If these comments were made last year, I would definitely dismiss them as jokes. But now, I actually find them somewhat convincing

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MetaverseHobo

· 01-12 10:19

Institutions entering the market start touting a super cycle, I've heard this explanation too many times. --- Fidelity's words sound good, but when the bear market hits, it's the same old dumping. --- Decoupling? Wake up, when the market crashes, everyone kneels together. --- High friendliness from the US? Wait until Trump changes his mind. --- The three main factors sound good, but the reality is different. --- I believe in the super cycle, but don't expect it to stay at high levels for long. --- Institutions are just here to harvest profits, it's just a beautified explanation. --- Bitcoin has its own pricing logic? Then why does it always fall with risk assets? --- The halving cycle is outdated, that's true, but can we trust the super cycle? --- That's why I still hold Bitcoin tightly, regardless of the cycle.

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DustCollector