Forecast for 2026: Why metals might dominate the investment scene over digital assets?

Market analyses by Bloomberg Intelligence reveal an interesting trend – the increasing disparity in the behavior of metals and cryptocurrency assets when looking at stock market fluctuation patterns. According to Bloomberg Intelligence expert Mike McGlone, we are witnessing a pivotal moment where volatility becomes the main factor determining the performance of different asset classes.

Metals rebound, cryptocurrencies oscillate

Comparing the Bloomberg index covering all metals with the Galaxy Crypto Index, a clear picture emerges. In 2020, metals showed growth alongside intensified market fluctuations. Then, we observed consolidation throughout 2021. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency sector presents a completely different profile – much more unstable, with sharp peaks and drastic declines.

Moving into the 2024-2025 period, the situation changes. Metals exhibit relatively calm behavior, with subdued fluctuations compared to previous cycles. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency instrument enters a phase of increased price oscillations again, reacting sensitively to movements in the stock markets.

Historical lessons: When metals outperform digital assets

Historical data indicate a recurring pattern – during periods of tightening financial conditions or rising uncertainty, metals consistently outperformed cryptocurrency assets. Considering current volatility readings of the S&P 500, the scenario suggests that metals may maintain their relative advantage in the coming year.

If upward pressure on stock volatility persists, portfolios focused on metals could serve as a more stable refuge for investors seeking shelter.

Bitcoin versus gold: Where is the ratio headed?

A second dimension of analysis focuses on the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. As of the end of December 2024, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio hovered around 20x. Bloomberg Economics valuation models suggest a potential move toward the 13x level in the upcoming period.

History shows an interesting pattern – low-volatility phases in equity markets coincided with stabilization or strengthening of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, especially during the periods 2018-2020 and 2022-2023. Conversely, sharp increases in stock volatility were associated with a weakening of this indicator.

In the current market environment, where volatility readings are rising at the start of 2025, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is again under pressure.

Volatility: The new rule of the game in markets

Bloomberg Intelligence identifies stock market volatility as the dominant factor influencing the relative performance of both digital assets and physical metals. The analysis is based on solid historical correlations that reveal recurring patterns over the years.

In summary – for investors observing the 2026 period, metals seem to be the natural beneficiaries of an environment of heightened volatility, while cryptocurrencies may remain a more volatile partner within a portfolio.