Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon — decentralized prediction markets known for their accuracy are closely monitoring the developments in Iran. On-chain betting platforms like Polymarket show that the odds of Iran’s highest leader stepping down in 2026 have soared to 62%.

The reality behind this is that protests within Iran have resulted in 538 civilian casualties. Meanwhile, Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi recently delivered a speech emphasizing that Iran’s freedom is imminent. U.S. officials have also explicitly stated that they will support the Iranian people’s fight for freedom.

From the perspective of the crypto market, decentralized prediction platforms are becoming a "barometer" of international political events. These on-chain prediction mechanisms, through incentive structures and real funds betting, often reflect participants’ true expectations of events. When the odds break through the 60% mark, it is indeed worth market participants’ attention to the underlying driving logic.