#比特币趋势与价格分析 Looking at the $23.7 billion annual settlement on December 26th this year, my mind drifts to the market sentiments before and after past settlements over the years. Over time, settlement days have ceased to be just simple options expiration moments and have become a mirror reflecting the deeper logic of the market.

I still remember the $11 billion settlement at the end of 2023, when prices were tightly held between $42,000 and $43,000, as if an invisible hand was choking the market. After the settlement, that "cage" disappeared, and BTC, like a released beast, surged to $48,000 within days. I’ve seen this cycle of suppression and release too many times.

By March 2024, with a $15 billion settlement combined with halving expectations, prices fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000. At that time, gamma hedging was incredibly powerful, but once settlement was complete, the rebound momentum was enough to push to new highs. I kept wondering when this logic would fail.

Interestingly, the $17 billion settlement in June didn’t lead to the expected surge; instead, the market maintained a correction trend. This was a reminder to me: post-settlement movements are not absolute; the market fundamentals are the ultimate judge.

Now, returning to the end of the year, history is repeating itself. Liquidity is thin during the Christmas holiday, and the rise in precious metals has diverted some funds. Bitcoin remains trapped between $85,000 and $90,000. I’ve repeatedly pondered the significance of the $96,000 figure, the biggest pain point. What does the disappearance of the "cage" after settlement mean? Based on past patterns, it should lead to increased volatility and upward impulses. But I also see signs of market fatigue — this time might not be as aggressive as March 2024.

Past successful cases tell me that settlements are just catalysts; the real determinants are macro environment and market sentiment. The regulatory and rate cut expectations at the start of 2025 do provide support, but caution must always be maintained. A sprint to $100,000 is an enticing story, but every previous high has made people believe there’s no turning back.