Recently, the Federal Reserve's official website quickly published the Chair's statement. Observing the overall situation, it is interesting that the White House continues to exert pressure at this juncture, and the underlying logic may be quite complex.

From a political perspective, although the Chair's term ends in May 2026, the director role lasts until January 2028. Historically, it is rare for a former Chair to remain as a director after stepping down—the last time was after World War II. Why is this so rare? Because the successor Chair would be in a awkward position—sitting next to a highly experienced, dissenting predecessor, which results in the new Chair being unable to establish authority and potential division within the Federal Reserve. From this angle, the White House's pressure strategy is actually about creating momentum early on, aiming to force the resignation of the director position through legal means when stepping down. This can also intimidate other Federal Reserve officials: non-cooperation could entail legal risks.

From an economic perspective, it gets even more interesting. Some unseen corners may already be experiencing problems—commercial real estate, private credit, credit card markets, and the asset quality of small and medium-sized banks are all deteriorating. After such a long period of high interest rates, a critical liquidity point may be about to break. The economic data the White House team has might be worse than publicly available. They need the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates significantly, stop shrinking its balance sheet, and even restart QE to stabilize the situation. But the Chair emphasizes "based on evidence and economic conditions," meaning that before an official data collapse occurs, they won't preemptively loosen policy due to political pressure. This is unacceptable to the White House—once a crisis erupts, it will affect mid-term elections, so they want to inflate the bubble again before the crisis happens.

Regardless of who ultimately takes office, one reality is that the independence of the Federal Reserve has already been de facto weakened. If the Fed ultimately becomes a policy tool of the White House, completely losing independent judgment, the market will panic. This is also why gold prices continue to rise—the deeper reason lies here. Investors are hedging against the risks brought by policy uncertainty.