#BTC价格波动 BTC has retraced 30% from its all-time high, making this a point worth paying close attention to. The data is quite clear: Bitcoin has fallen about 5% this year, while the S&P 500 has risen 18%. This contrast is driving a wave of tax-loss harvesting.

The key is to understand the underlying capital flow logic—institutions and high-net-worth investors holding dual positions now have a strong incentive to realize unrealized losses on BTC before the end of the year to offset capital gains on stocks. Especially those positions entered at the high in October, selling pressure indeed exists.

But this also means we need to distinguish: Is the current decline a technical adjustment or a systemic sell-off driven by tax considerations? On-chain, if tax-loss harvesting is the main driver, large wallet outflows will show clear signs—large transfers pointing to exchanges. It’s important to closely monitor whale movements and the timing of exchange fund inflows.

The year-end window is indeed rare, but it also suggests that the bottom may still be in exploration. Continue observing derivatives data and capital flows; the rebound signals after the tax season ends are more worth entering on.