If the Supreme Court rejects Trump's tariffs policy, the U.S. Treasury Department has already stated that "the treasury is sufficiently stocked" to support large-scale compensation. This is not only the outcome of a political showdown but could also trigger a series of chain reactions—directly impacting the cryptocurrency market.

**How macro risk assets move**

Such top-level legal decisions often shake traditional financial markets. Stock markets, the dollar's trend, exchange rates—all may experience intense volatility. As an important component of risk assets, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to remain unaffected in the short term. Increased volatility is almost inevitable, posing risks for some investors and opportunities for others.

**Implications of liquidity release**

What is the essence of large-scale fiscal refunds? Injecting real money into the market. Where will this flood of liquidity flow? Some will go to traditional assets, but in a loose environment, risk assets including cryptocurrencies tend to attract a portion of the funds. Historical experience shows that abundant liquidity environments often accompany rising risk assets.

**Policy uncertainty breeds demand for hedging**

This event deeply exposes the high uncertainty of the U.S. political ecosystem—presidential powers, judicial constraints, trade policies—all become variables. In the face of this situation, savvy investors will reassess their asset allocations. Cryptocurrencies? To some extent, they are being redefined as a "hedge against traditional political risks."

At the same time, don't overlook one point: when the market's attention is drawn to such major events, the focus on crypto regulation news will be diluted. This could give the market some breathing room.

**The final logic**

This is not just about "the Treasury has money to compensate." Behind it is a constitutional-level showdown over the U.S. president's trade powers about to be settled, which could trigger massive capital flows, reshape the international trade landscape, and reprice all risk assets—including the crypto market—through macro channels. The Treasury's statement is merely preemptive crisis management.