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Recent market trends reveal an interesting contradiction: US stocks and gold are rising, while Bitcoin is falling. What is the underlying logic?
Non-farm payroll data provides the answer. The recently released employment figures show that the market has entered a strange "neither hiring nor firing" state—companies are neither expanding hiring on a large scale nor rushing to lay off employees. This stagnant employment situation reflects economic uncertainty.
When traditional assets (US stocks, gold) become safe havens under this macroeconomic dilemma, Bitcoin, as a risk asset, underperforms relatively. The divergence in their movements is a result of the market weighing growth expectations against risks.
On the other hand, a16z recently completed a multi-billion dollar fundraising round, continuing to inject funds into the crypto ecosystem, indicating that long-term optimists have not slowed down. However, in the short term, market sentiment is still digesting these macro signals, which is why we see this unconventional divergence.