Commodity markets tend to make the same mistakes when assessing oil-producing nations bouncing back from crises. First, they underestimate how fast these countries can rebuild lost output. Second—and this is the bigger trap—they wildly overestimate the lasting economic benefits once recovery kicks in. Venezuela is a textbook example of this dynamic. You see it play out over and over: initial recovery looks impressive, analysts get bullish, but the structural problems remain unsolved. It's a pattern worth watching, especially when thinking about how crisis narratives reshape market expectations.