2026-01-09 09:25:43

The Federal Reserve's third rate cut of the year has been finalized—benchmark interest rates lowered by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. The policy stance has shifted toward stabilizing growth, but the market has not calmed down as a result.

Powell's candid remarks at the press conference caused a stir: recent employment data may have overstated job gains by 60,000, with the actual situation resembling a monthly loss of 20,000 jobs. This official warning has made the upcoming December non-farm payrolls data highly anticipated.

The employment statistics, previously suppressed by government shutdowns, are now being released in a mixed picture of hot and cold. In November, 64,000 new jobs were added, slightly exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6%—the highest since September 2021. Looking further back, October saw a sharp decline of 105,000 jobs, and revisions for August-September data suggest that the cooling of employment is now a certainty. Investors' bets on further rate cuts in 2026 are also heating up.

Meanwhile, the US business activity index is not optimistic. The S&P Global Composite PMI fell from 54.2 in November to 53.0, hitting a six-month low. New orders in manufacturing and services are contracting, with goods new orders experiencing their first decline in a year—this clearly signals that companies are slowing down their hiring expansion.

More painfully, internal contradictions within the employment market are emerging. Since December, there has been a strange divergence between initial and continued unemployment claims. During the week ending December 20, initial claims fell for two consecutive weeks to 214,000, seemingly easing short-term layoffs, but the number of continued claims, reflecting difficulty in finding work, rose to 1.923 million, with the continued claims rate increasing to 1.3%. The unadjusted weekly increase in continued claims far exceeds seasonal trends. What does this divergence indicate? The current employment market is caught in a stagflationary quagmire of "fewer layoffs and fewer hires." Signs of layoffs have already begun to appear in industries such as transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing.

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RugpullSurvivor

· 01-12 09:00

Interest rate cuts in vain, employment data still gets slapped in the face, Powell's move is truly heartbreaking. Isn't this just the prelude to stagflation? A wave of layoffs is coming, everyone. Unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, yet they still tout strong employment—typical of "looks fine but actually is over." PMI keeps falling, orders are shrinking, and expectations for rate cuts next year are soaring... It's just forced cuts. Fewer layoffs and fewer hires—are companies waiting and watching? Or are they holding back big moves? Stay tuned. An increase in continued unemployment claims is the real signal; the decline in initial claims might just be an illusion. Transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing are all cutting jobs—this is the signal light of a cyclical shift. Some are still speculating on rate cuts, but little do they know, the employment market has already entered stagflation mode.

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ser_ngmi

· 01-11 20:10

Powell's recent moves have directly pulled the curtain off the unemployment data—pretty harsh. The job market is now in a "boiling frog" scenario, with companies neither laying off massively nor hiring new staff. Whoever gets caught in this is unlucky. Interest rate cuts have been made, but economic data keeps looking worse and worse. It feels like we're about to bet on a big rally in 2024 again. PMI keeps falling, new orders are shrinking... Is this a prelude to a hard landing? Can the Nasdaq hold steady? The unemployment rate has jumped directly to 4.6%, which is no longer just fine-tuning; it needs to be taken seriously. The continued rise in unemployment benefits suggests it’s really getting harder to find a job—lingering effects from the recent wave of layoffs. Transport, warehousing, and manufacturing are starting to cut jobs. Could the tech sector be next? Feeling a bit worried.

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0xSoulless

· 01-11 10:35

So what if interest rates are cut? All the data is fake, and we retail investors are still being exploited. Powell admitted to job data falsification, yet the market is still rising, which is outrageous. Poor employment figures, declining PMI, shrinking orders—basically, the economy is dying. Rate cuts are just a brief rebound. Fewer layoffs and less hiring? That means big funds are watching, and retail investors should be scared. Transportation and manufacturing industries are starting to lay off workers. Who's next? Anyway, it won't be me making money.

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 01-09 09:55

Cut interest rate, cut interest rate, cut interest rate, yet the unemployment rate instead surged to 4.6%, which is outrageous. The job market's strange divergence is truly remarkable. Are initial claims continuing to rise while continuing claims fall? Clearly signaling stagflation. Powell admits the data was exaggerated by 60,000; why is he only saying this now? Who was he fooling before? The rate cut bets for 2026 are heating up... Basically, the economy isn't as optimistic, no more pretending. PMI dropped from 54 to 53, with new business orders shrinking. This is the real cold and warm reality, not the central bank's lip service. Transportation, manufacturing, and warehousing are all starting to lay off workers. Will this wave be fierce by the end of the year? Feeling a bit anxious. Fewer layoffs and fewer hires, stuck in the stagflation quagmire... Just hearing this makes it uncomfortable, with employees and companies caught in the middle.

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SignatureLiquidator

· 01-09 09:54

Interest rate cuts are just that, but all the data is fake. Is the water content of 60,000 people that significant? Wait, employment is still declining, and PMI has also fallen. Is this "stabilizing growth"? What’s the current situation in the job market... fewer layoffs and fewer hires, do you think this is good or bad? Powell’s recent frankness was a bit harsh, directly exposing the lie in employment data. Will non-farm payrolls continue to plunge in December? It feels like the entire job market is dead and dull. Commodity orders have declined for the first time in a year? This signal isn’t very good. Unemployment benefits continue to skyrocket, showing how difficult it is to find a job. So what if interest rates are cut? The market doesn’t buy it at all, and the economic fundamentals are still so weak. Transportation, warehousing, and manufacturing are all starting to lay off workers? This is quietly heading towards a recession. The S&P PMI has fallen to 53, and the term stagflation mud pit is so fitting.

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YieldFarmRefugee

· 01-09 09:46

Why cut interest rates further? Employment data is all fake. Even Powell admitted that the number was exaggerated by 60,000. Who is this IQ insulted to? The unemployment rate hit 4.6%, a three-year high, and PMI fell below 54.0. Companies are "reducing hiring." Where is the stable growth in this? Unemployment benefits surged to 1.92 million. On one hand, no layoffs; on the other, no new hires. This stagflation quagmire will continue like this, and in 2026, we’ll still be cutting the leeks. Looking at the data just makes me want to laugh. The surface shows a steady interest rate cut policy, but the foundation is already rotten. No matter how you look at this rally in the US stock market, it’s suspicious. Orders are shrinking, manufacturing is contracting, and people are afraid to hire. Cutting 25 basis points is useless.

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OnChain_Detective

· 01-09 09:35

ngl the jobless claims divergence here is screaming red flags... initial down but continuing claims up 192.3k? that's textbook pattern recognition for a system about to break. not financial advice but the data doesn't lie fr

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