#密码资产动态追踪 This Friday's non-farm payroll data release will cause a explosion in the crypto world.

According to the latest analysis, the impact of this US employment data on the market may not be as significant as expected. The market is now basically anchored to one expectation: the Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates around mid-year, with possibly two 25 basis point cuts throughout the year, and the first rate cut is most likely to occur before the end of April.

Specifically, regarding the non-farm numbers themselves, market forecasts predict an increase of about 70,000 jobs, which is actually quite "moderate" — it won't scare investors into thinking the economy is collapsing, nor will it shatter the hope for rate cuts. What can truly shake expectations are those exaggerated fluctuations. Simply put:

**7-10K increase** is the ideal scenario, confirming economic easing and allowing rate cuts to proceed as planned
**Below 50K** will raise concerns about sluggish growth and may even accelerate rate cut expectations
**Over 125K** would be problematic, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until June

Why is this so critical? Because Federal Reserve policies directly influence the direction of the US dollar index, and the dollar and Bitcoin have an inverse relationship — a weaker dollar usually means a stronger Bitcoin. Currently, the crypto market is already teetering at high levels, and this non-farm data's outcome will directly determine whether we break through or pull back.

Be prepared, increased volatility is inevitable.