CryptoQuant CEO Expects Sideways Bitcoin Action Rather Than Major Crash

2026-01-09 03:22:48

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: CryptoQuant CEO Expects Boring Bitcoin Action, Not Major Crash Original Link:

Bitcoin Capital Inflows Show Signs of Slowdown

The founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, has recently shared insights suggesting that Bitcoin may not experience a major crash exceeding 50% as seen in past bear markets, but instead anticipate sideways price action in the coming months.

Realized Cap Indicates Declining Capital Inflows

In a post on X, Young Ju highlighted the “Realized Cap” metric, which measures Bitcoin’s total value by valuing each token at the price of its last transaction. This indicator reflects the total capital deployed into Bitcoin by investors.

Historically, bull markets have shown strong upward trends in Realized Cap, with the metric peaking between late 2023 and late 2025. However, the recent trend has reversed, with the metric showing a net decline—a pattern that has historically preceded bearish phases.

Different Market Dynamics This Cycle

Despite these signals, Young Ju notes that the current cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones. He points out that liquidity channels have become more diversified, making it difficult to time inflows accurately. Institutional adoption through vehicles like spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases has changed market dynamics.

“I don’t think we’ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,” Young Ju stated. “Just boring sideways for the next few months.”

Retail Demand Also Declining

Beyond institutional capital, retail investor participation has also weakened. Community analyst Maartunn highlighted that the 30-day percentage change in retail transaction volume (transactions under $10,000) has turned negative, indicating declining monthly activity from smaller investors.

“The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,” Maartunn noted, suggesting that even the recent Bitcoin recovery has not yet attracted retail participation.

Current Price Action

At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $89,900, up 2% over the previous seven days.

BTC-1.88%

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