#以太坊大户持仓变化 Silver Intraday Market Overview: Range-bound Fluctuations Dominant, Non-Farm Payrolls Tonight as a Turning Point

Recently, silver has faced considerable pressure. On one hand, regulatory authorities in the spot market have intensified risk control measures—raising margin requirements and restricting intraday opening positions. Meanwhile, the annual rebalancing of the commodity index has triggered a wave of technical selling, both of which have directly suppressed short-term speculative enthusiasm. However, looking at the bigger picture, there is still long-term confidence: expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle are present, silver production remains tight, and demand from the new energy industry is rigid, all supporting silver prices.

The key point is tonight’s non-farm payroll data. If the data exceeds expectations, the dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on silver prices; but if the data falls short, safe-haven buying could surge, potentially breaking through resistance levels. During the daytime, a vacuum of news will likely cause the market to continue oscillating within a certain range, making significant directional moves unlikely.

Technical outlook? The 74 level is crucial—it is the core support of the upward trend since the low on November 21. Additionally, around 74, there is a dense support zone between 73.8 and 74 dollars, which was tested yesterday. Currently, the hourly Bollinger Bands’ upper band is turning upward, with downward momentum waning. The short-term MACD is also showing signs of bottom divergence. If today’s second test can hold above 74, or even form a bottoming and rebound pattern with a pullback for confirmation, it will lay a technical foundation for subsequent upward movement. Short-term resistance is around 78. Conversely, if the 74 level is broken effectively, attention should turn to the previous low of 70.07.

Trading Strategy: Today’s main approach is to buy low and sell high, primarily going long with supplementary short positions.

Long Strategy (Main Force)
Light positions at $74.5–75, with a stop-loss at $73.7, targeting $76.5–77. If the market dips and then recovers back above $74.5, add positions between $74.2–74.5, keeping the same stop-loss, and aiming for $77.5–78.

Short Strategy (Supporting)
Try short positions lightly at $77.5–78, with a stop-loss at $78.3, targeting a return to $75.5–76.