The rise and fall of the crypto market never rely on luck; fundamentally, it is the squeeze of leveraged funds and the transfer of control over chips. Today’s Dogecoin trend is the most vivid illustration of this logic.

When I looked at the 4-hour candlestick chart this morning, I found it interesting—Dogecoin just broke above 0.154 in the early hours, but by the afternoon, it plummeted towards 0.139. The technical indicators looked extremely embarrassing, with RSI and KDJ both falling into oversold territory, and the J value even hitting 0. This is not a normal correction; it’s more like being pressed down and rubbed into the ground.

But a closer look at what happened today reveals the underlying logic. The move from midnight to noon was a classic "longs killing longs" scenario—out of the $4.96 million liquidation orders, $4.92 million came from long positions. In other words, a bunch of retail traders, seeing the rebound from 0.115, couldn’t resist adding leverage to chase higher, only for the main force to hit back, causing these "leverage brothers" to get wiped out. I’ve seen this script many times. It was the same before the 2021 bull market: first clearing out leveraged positions, then gradually pushing prices higher. This round of shakeout is actually a good thing—those who were forced out are mostly floating chips, and the real spot holdings are in the hands of those without leverage, making the market appear "lighter."

But don’t rush to call the bottom. The current contradiction is quite interesting: technically, a rebound is hinting at happening, but funds are fleeing. Looking at the exchange net outflow data, a flow of -4.18 million USD indicates a situation where "retail is bottom-fishing, while big players are watching the show." Although the MACD still shows green bars, the turning signal is already brewing. At this point, what to watch is not how fierce the candlestick rebound is, but when the market’s attitude shifts.