ETH's leverage life-and-death situation: Breaks through $3,271, 1.755 billion short positions are about to be liquidated

According to the latest news, if ETH breaks through $3,271, the total liquidation strength of mainstream CEX short positions will reach $1.755 billion; conversely, if it falls below $2,972, the total liquidation strength of mainstream CEX long positions will reach $929 million. Currently, ETH is fluctuating around $3,114.86, between these two key levels, indicating that the market is essentially engaged in a high-risk leveraged confrontation.

The Dangerous Distance Between Current Price and Liquidation Distribution

Current Price Status and Recent Trends

ETH is currently quoted at $3,114.86, down 2.85% in the past 24 hours, but up 4.59% over the past 7 days, indicating higher short-term volatility. Market capitalization is $37.595 billion, accounting for 12.20% of the crypto market. From a price position perspective, there is about $157 (roughly 5%) of space to the upper liquidation line at $3,271, and about $143 (roughly 4.6%) to the lower liquidation line at $2,972, both levels are relatively close.

Asymmetry in Liquidation Strength

The most critical insight from this data release is the huge disparity in two-way liquidation pressure:

The short liquidation strength is nearly 1.9 times that of longs, indicating that leverage positions on the short side are much more concentrated than on the long side. Once the price breaks through $3,271, these $1.755 billion in short positions will trigger a “short squeeze”—forced liquidation of shorts, which is equivalent to passive buying. This buying wave will further push up the price, creating a self-reinforcing upward cycle.

Market Implications Behind the Liquidation Heatmap

What is Liquidation Strength?

It should be clarified that liquidation strength is not an exact count of contracts pending liquidation or the exact value being liquidated, but rather an indicator of the relative importance of liquidation clusters at that price level. Higher bars indicate a stronger market reaction when the price reaches that level, driven by liquidity waves. In other words, the $1.755 billion figure reflects the “density” and “impact” of liquidations, not an exact monetary amount.

Risk Assessment in the Market Context

Current market sentiment is not optimistic. According to relevant data, Coinbase Bitcoin premium index recently turned negative (-0.0277%), indicating that selling pressure on major US exchanges is warming up. Under this emotional backdrop, ETH’s short-term volatility is likely to increase. Any upward breakthrough could quickly trigger short liquidations, but similarly, downward breaches could rapidly trigger long liquidations.

Bidirectional Market Confrontation

The Dangerous Situation for Shorts

From the data, shorts are in a more dangerous position. The $1.755 billion in short liquidation strength means that once the price breaks through $3,271, the market will experience a wave of forced liquidations. This is not rational stop-loss behavior but system-mandated liquidations, leaving shorts with no choice. Moreover, short liquidation essentially involves buying, which will further push the price higher, creating a “short squeeze” effect.

Longs Are Not Safe Either

However, longs should not be complacent. The $929 million in long liquidation strength, though smaller, means that if the price falls below $2,972, these longs will also face forced liquidation. Considering the weakening US market sentiment and recent high volatility, downward risks should not be underestimated.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

In my personal view, the levels of $3,271 and $2,972 are important observation points in the short term. Which direction the market ultimately breaks through depends on multiple factors— including Federal Reserve policy expectations, macroeconomic data, and shifts in market sentiment. According to relevant information, whale holdings on Hyperliquid show that short positions account for 52.03%, slightly higher than longs at 47.97%, which aligns with the greater short pressure indicated by the liquidation data.

Summary

ETH is currently in a high-risk leveraged confrontation, with $1.755 billion in short liquidation strength far exceeding the $929 million in long liquidation strength, indicating greater risk on the short side. From the current price of $3,114.86, both liquidation lines are nearby, and any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Investors should monitor these two key levels closely and remain cautious of increased volatility driven by weakening market sentiment (US selling pressure warming up). The heatmap of liquidations is only a reference indicator of risk; the actual market trend requires comprehensive analysis of macro and technical factors.