#我的2026第一条帖 Pre-NFP Night Preparations! Bitcoin once again loses the $91,000 level—is this the final dip or a short-term correction?

When the market’s attention is fully focused on macroeconomic data that determines its fate, prices often react honestly and immediately. On the eve of Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report, Bitcoin’s price action has already revealed market anxiety and unease.

On the morning of January 8th, Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market continued its overnight weakness under the heavy weight of macro data. As the market officially enters the core period of “Non-Farm Week,” tense expectations around the data have completely suppressed any attempt at technical rebounds. The market is “voting with its feet,” pricing in the possibility of strong employment data. When uncertainty peaks, safe-haven and cautious sentiment become the dominant themes.

Fear spreads across the data, risk aversion dominates the market
Before the release of the US December Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday (January 9), the market has already entered a “silent exam” phase, where any small movement could be amplified into panic.
● Key breakdown: Bitcoin’s price has been under pressure overnight and this morning, not only breaking below $92,000 but also falling below the $91,000 level for the first time since early January. This breakdown is significant technically, indicating that the rebound structure that began last week has been completely dismantled, and the market’s focus is shifting downward.
● Market sentiment: Data shows the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 42. Although it has improved from the extreme fear levels of the previous week, it still remains in the “fear” zone. On the eve of major macro events, such sentiment can easily turn into selling pressure. Looking at capital flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently experienced net outflows, contrasting with continued inflows into Ethereum ETFs, indicating divergence and caution among institutional investors regarding core assets.
● Correlation effects: Not only cryptocurrencies, but global markets overnight also exhibited typical “risk-off” traits: the US dollar strengthened, precious metals (gold, silver) plunged collectively, and industrial metals and oil also declined. This suggests that the current market-driving logic is macroeconomic and global in nature, and crypto assets are not immune.

Bitcoin’s breakdown at a critical level has rapidly shifted the technical outlook to a bearish dominance.
Technical analysis: 4-hour support has been lost, with targets pointing toward the monthly open price. On the daily and 4-hour charts, Bitcoin’s chart has issued clear bearish signals.
● Key breakdown: The support at $92,155 has been breached. As Bitcoin approached $91,000, it effectively broke below the key support level of $92,155 on the 4-hour chart. This confirms the strengthening of downside momentum from a technical perspective.
● Downside targets and pathways: After this breakdown, the next potential target for bears is around $87,600, near the January monthly open. Before reaching this target, a temporary psychological support may form around $90,500. Any rebound from this level that fails to regain above $92,000 could merely be a correction within a downtrend.
● Resistance overhead: The previous support has now turned into strong resistance. The $92,000–$92,500 zone will serve as a “ceiling” that short-term rebounds will struggle to surpass. Only a move back above $96,500 can reverse the current bearish structure and turn sentiment bullish.

Market news analysis: Everything for the Non-Farm, macro tightening expectations continue to ferment
All current market narratives revolve around one core event: the US December Non-Farm Payroll report.
This data, scheduled for release on Friday Beijing time, is seen as a “weather vane” for Federal Reserve policy.
1. Overriding macro narrative: Since this week, geopolitical risks and industry news have taken a backseat. Market logic is very clear: any data or expectations that suggest a strong US economy (supporting prolonged high interest rates) will directly suppress all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The overnight plunge in precious metals reflects market pricing in “higher rates for longer.”
2. Pessimistic forward signals: Although the official “big Non-Farm” data has not yet been released, market sentiment is already dominated by strong expectations leaked early. Some analysts predict a surge of 216,000 jobs in December, far exceeding previous estimates. This intensifies fears of tightening, directly causing the recent dip in the early hours.
3. Short-term volatility sources: Analysts generally believe that until Friday’s data is released, the market will remain highly sensitive and volatile. Every economic data point (such as the earlier released ISM services index) could trigger sharp reactions. The high beta nature of cryptocurrencies is fully amplified in this process.

Market outlook: Wait for data release, beware of two scenarios
The market will enter a “heartbeat” mode driven by event risk, with volatility high but direction entirely dependent on the data.
● Strong data, in line with or exceeding expectations: This is the “baseline scenario.” If the data confirms a hot labor market, “tightening trades” will dominate, and Bitcoin may dip toward $90,000 or even the $88,000–$87,600 zone. Rebounds will be very difficult.
● Unexpectedly weak data: This will create a significant “expectation gap.” If employment figures fall well below expectations, hopes for an earlier Fed rate cut will reignite, possibly triggering a risk asset rebound. Bitcoin’s primary target will be to regain the $92,000 level. However, this scenario is less likely given current market expectations. Until the data is clear, any directional bets are essentially gambling. The safest strategy is to significantly reduce positions and stay on the sidelines. Aggressive traders betting on a rebound from weak data must wait for clear reversal signals (such as long lower shadows at key support levels with volume increase) and set strict stop-losses.

Summary and reminders
In the face of macroeconomic currents, technical charts are sometimes just a small boat. Respect the market’s chosen direction—this is always better than fighting the trend. The early morning breakdown already shows us in the most direct way: the market is preparing for the worst macro scenario (strong employment and continued tightening). From a technical perspective, losing $92,000 (BTC) has handed the short-term initiative to the bears. At this critical moment that will set the tone for Q1 macro, follow the principle of “more patience, less action.”
1. Cash is king, wait for opportunities: Before Friday’s non-farm data release, reduce your positions to the minimum and hold enough cash. The current market volatility is extremely high; conserving strength for confirmed opportunities after the storm is wiser than risking in the storm.
2. Abandon bottom-fishing fantasies: When macro data dominates the trend, support levels are fragile. Do not attempt to “catch falling knives” in a downtrend; true bottoms usually require dual confirmation from data and price.
3. Prepare for data reactions: Plan your response strategies for two scenarios after the data release—whether to wait, follow, or reverse. Map out your trades and then wait for the market to give the answer.
4. Watch correlated markets: Keep a close eye on the immediate reactions of US stocks, the US dollar index, and US bond yields. After the data, these traditional markets will provide crucial guidance for crypto asset movements.