#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 Ethereum 4-hour K-line: Short-term adjustment pressure is a bit strong

The real-time price is at 3130.86 USDT, with a 24-hour decline of -3.926%. Honestly, this market movement looks a bit dull.

**What do the technical indicators say?**

On the moving average system, MA5(3141.21) has already fallen below MA10(3190.34), forming a death cross. The price is still below MA20(3202.46), with the bears clearly in control. But don’t overcomplicate it; there’s just no support in the short term.

The MACD is a bit annoying — DIF(4.24) has already fallen below DEA(23.76), and the histogram is negative(-19.52), indicating the downward momentum is still continuing. But this isn’t necessarily bad; at least the direction is clear.

The Bollinger Bands show the price hovering near the lower band(3105.03), with a %B value of only 0.11%, approaching oversold territory but not fully there yet. RSI6 has already entered oversold zone(29.63), while RSI12 and RSI14 are at 40.53 and 42.77 respectively, indicating a neutral to weak bias. KDJ’s K(20.64) and D(27.56) are both very low, and J(6.78) is also in oversold territory — chasing short positions now could easily get caught by a rebound.

**Where is the money flowing?**

This is the key point. Contract funds are continuously flowing out in 4H(-5.09 billion), 6H(-6.14 billion), and 24H(-12.96 billion), indicating leverage positions are being withdrawn. Spot market also shows outflows, but on a much smaller scale, suggesting selling pressure isn’t that intense. The funding rate at 0.0078% remains in the neutral zone, with no extreme bullish or bearish divergence.

**Volume and price details**

Recently, several candles have shown significantly increased volume, especially during the decline. The low at 3086.26 has many long lower shadows, indicating some traders are finding support there.

**Trading strategy**

Direction: Cautiously bearish, avoid being too aggressive.
Entry: Short on rallies in the 3150-3170 range, or wait for a confirmed break below 3086 before shorting.
Stop-loss: 3220 (risk within 3%).
Target: 2980-3020 zone (expected profit 5-7%).

Currently near a key support level, although technical indicators are bearish, RSI is already oversold. It’s not advisable to fully load the position. It’s better to build positions gradually, prioritizing risk management.

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*This analysis is for reference only. Trading involves risks; proper stop-loss is essential.*