See you on Friday: Will US employment data ignite the volatility window in the crypto market?

U.S. December Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Friday (January 10th), and this data is regarded by the market as a key macro variable influencing short-term cryptocurrency trends. Currently, mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are under close watch, with the market generally betting on the U.S. economy “cooling down but not slipping into recession,” which is often interpreted as a relatively risk-friendly signal. However, based on current market performance, all assets are awaiting confirmation from this data.

Employment Data Expectations: What Is the Market Betting On?

According to the U.S. economic calendar, December non-farm payrolls will be announced on Friday. What are the market expectations?

From the data, the market expects employment growth to slow and the unemployment rate to slightly decline. The logic behind these expectations is clear: the labor market is softening rather than collapsing. This “cooling but not recession” scenario typically boosts expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow down or even pause tightening, or possibly cut rates. For crypto assets, this is generally a positive signal.

Previously released JOLTS job openings data has reinforced this outlook. The data showed U.S. job openings fell to about 7.1 million, significantly below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reflecting weakening hiring demand. Such signals often prompt investors to reassess the Fed’s policy space, thereby increasing demand for risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Current State of the Crypto Market: The Intersection of Technicals and Sentiment

But what is the current market situation? Overall, the crypto market is at a crossroads of technical levels and sentiment, with short-term pressure evident.

Market Size and Price Position

According to the latest data, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen back to approximately $3.08 trillion. Bitcoin’s current price is $90,385.34, down 2.65% in the past 24 hours, though it has risen 0.52% in the last hour and 3.16% over the past week. This price level (around $90,000) is viewed as a critical psychological and technical resistance, and breaking through it would require stronger market signals.

Short-Term Performance of Major Coins

Looking at the 24-hour performance of major cryptocurrencies, market sentiment appears cautious:

• Bitcoin: down 2.65%, oscillating around $90,000
• Ethereum: down about 4%, with a larger decline than BTC
• XRP: back to around $2.11, down over 7% in a single day, the largest decline
• Solana: while maintaining about a 9% weekly gain, it has also experienced a short-term pullback

This widespread short-term correction indicates that funds are becoming cautious ahead of the macro data release. The market is waiting—waiting for Friday’s employment report to confirm the true state of the labor market.

The Volatility Window on Friday: What Could Happen

Historically, employment reports often serve as key triggers for short-term market movements. Two scenarios may unfold:

Scenario 1: Data Confirms Cooling Trend

If the employment report confirms a cooling labor market (i.e., slower job growth, slight rise in unemployment rate), expectations for the Fed to slow or pause tightening, or even cut rates, will be reinforced. In this case:

• Bitcoin could regain upward momentum, breaking the $90,000 resistance
• Ethereum and other major coins may see a sentiment recovery
• The overall crypto market could enter a new upward cycle

Scenario 2: Stronger-than-Expected Data

If the employment data exceeds expectations (more jobs created, larger-than-expected drop in unemployment), this could weaken the market’s expectations for rate cuts, potentially putting pressure on crypto assets. In this scenario, short-term correction risks remain.

Summary

The U.S. employment report is set to become a key short-term trigger for the crypto market. Currently, the market is at a crossroads of technical levels and sentiment, with all assets awaiting confirmation from this data. For investors, the key is to observe two aspects: whether the employment data confirms a cooling trend in the labor market, and whether this data can push Bitcoin and other key assets through technical resistance levels. The resonance between macro data and critical price zones may determine the next phase of market direction.