2026-01-08 06:24:01

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January has dropped from 17.7% to 11.1%. The non-farm payroll data released yesterday provided a clear signal to the market. Although the addition of 41,000 jobs was below expectations, it is an improvement compared to the negative growth (-29,000) in November.

The current market consensus is that: employment is not heading towards a recession, inflation has not yet fallen below 2%, and the Federal Reserve has no reason to rush to cut rates in January. In other words, the January rate cut window is essentially closed.

The real focus has shifted to March, with the probability of a rate cut now around 45%. Where is the uncertainty? It’s tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data. If the data continues to remain strong, expectations for a rate cut in March will also need to be adjusted accordingly, and the market will then undergo a real stress test.

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OnchainDetectiveBing

· 01-11 06:03

January is out of the question, wait until March... The index data is too resilient.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-11 04:10

The bus in January was gone long ago. Now it's just a matter of whether March's non-farm payroll can turn things around. A 45% chance, to be honest, is still gambling.

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MoonlightGamer

· 01-10 15:10

The rate cut in January is already off the table; we have to wait until March for any action. This pace feels like it's being manipulated by the Federal Reserve to the death. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data will be the real watershed. If the numbers are weaker, there's still hope; if they're strong, we’ll have to wait a bit longer. Employment isn't declining, and inflation remains high. The Federal Reserve indeed has no real reason to rush to cut rates. To be honest, we still need to endure a bit more. A 45% probability doesn't seem that high. In my opinion, this round of stress testing is inevitable. We should stock up on ammunition before making a move.

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NFTDreamer

· 01-10 07:11

Once again, non-farm payroll data is capturing everyone's attention. The January dream is shattered, now all hopes are pinned on March. Truly.

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NoStopLossNut

· 01-08 06:52

January is out of the picture; I've been optimistic about March for a while. Let's see how the non-farm payroll report turns out tomorrow.

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UnluckyValidator

· 01-08 06:39

No rate cut in January anymore, the Federal Reserve is playing hardball --- Just have to wait until March again, this pace is really frustrating --- Non-farm payroll data is the real boss, it decides everything --- No recession in employment means no cut, the logic makes sense but it's not friendly to retail investors --- Stress tests? We've been tested enough already --- A 45% probability is still too optimistic, then we'll have to reverse our position again --- Federal Reserve: I won't cut, see if you're in a hurry or not --- Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report is critical, I have a feeling I won't sleep well --- Basically, it's just waiting for the data to decide, all previous predictions were pointless --- Inflation remains the biggest challenge, no wonder the Federal Reserve isn't in a hurry

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IfIWereOnChain

· 01-08 06:38

January is out of the game, let's wait until March. Anyway, the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry. --- Non-farm payroll data is the real boss; once this number is out, the market will have to kneel. --- To put it simply, employment is still okay, inflation isn't over yet. Why would the Federal Reserve cut interest rates now? --- A 45% chance of rate cut in March sounds not low... tomorrow's data will be crucial. --- Tsk, another wait. By March, even the yellow flowers will have withered. --- This logic makes sense; there's no recession in employment, so why consider a rate cut? --- If tomorrow's non-farm payroll data is even more impressive, March might be a washout. That's when the real show begins. --- I'm tired of hearing about the window closing; it's always the same story. --- The possibility of March is higher, but it also depends on how the subsequent data unfolds. --- Stress testing? Ha, that term just sounds uncomfortable.

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GateUser-40edb63b

· 01-08 06:37

January was a washout, now we're looking at March. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll data is the real key.

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TheMemefather