CME Data: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only 11.6%, and the market is betting on policy remaining unchanged.

HashBard · 2026-01-08T00:18:08+00:00

The market remains cautious about the Federal Reserve's actions next month, with an 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. By the end of March, the probability of a rate cut rises to 40.3%, but holding steady remains the mainstream expectation. Overall, this reflects the market's conservative outlook on monetary policy.

HashBard

2026-01-08 00:18:08

Abstract generation in progress

【Chain Wen】According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s actions next month are relatively cautious. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 11.6%, with the vast majority of traders betting on rates remaining unchanged, at 88.4%.

Looking further ahead, the situation loosens slightly. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the end of March rises to 40.3%, but maintaining the current rate remains the mainstream expectation, at 55.4%. Interestingly, the extreme scenario—cumulative 50 basis point rate cut—has only a 4.3% chance, indicating that the market generally expects a restrained rate reduction.

These data reflect the current market’s cautious attitude towards the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and are important references for the price trend of cryptocurrencies.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 01-11 00:04

88.4% chance of not dropping, what is this telling us... probably have to wait until spring.

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HodlKumamon

· 01-08 05:42

There is an 88.4% chance it will remain unchanged, which means the market is saying "Don't think about it for now." The bear feels that the drama of interest rate cuts this year won't come so soon.

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GateUser-c799715c

· 01-08 00:41

Ha, an 11.6% probability, so there's an 80% chance January is a no-go. The Federal Reserve, this iron rooster, really refuses to loosen its grip.

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UncleWhale

· 01-08 00:38

There is an 88.4% chance that we will just hold on to our coins honestly, as the Federal Reserve clearly has no intention of cutting interest rates this time.

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BlockchainFoodie

· 01-08 00:25

nah the fed's basically serving us a frozen dinner rn... all those basis points locked up like a poorly sealed sous-vide bag. 88.4% staying put? that's some seriously bland monetary policy tbh

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EthMaximalist