What are the biggest fears for crypto newcomers? Not understanding K-line charts and being forced to make random moves. Actually, you don't need to master complex technical analysis—a simple moving average system combined with disciplined execution is enough to survive longer.

**The First Step in Choosing Coins**

The trend is your friend. Focus only on assets in an upward or consolidation phase, and decisively avoid downtrends or when moving averages turn downward. This isn't conservatism; it's the cost of staying alive.

**Three-Stage Positioning Rules**

Divide your capital into three equal parts and deploy them sequentially according to the rules:

Breakthrough of the 5-day moving average → buy the first part. This is the entry signal.

Breakthrough of the 15-day moving average → add the second part. The medium-term trend is established.

Breakthrough of the 30-day moving average → invest the last part. Lock in the long-term direction.

Each step must follow the clock. Don't shoot early, and don't dawdle. Discipline is simple and straightforward.

**Hold or Run? The Stop-Loss Logic Is Clear**

Pullback after breaking the 5-day line—holding the line without breaking it is the bottom line for holding; if it breaks, exit immediately.

Pullback after breaking the 15-day line—if it doesn't break the line, keep holding; if it breaks, sell one-third. If the remaining position can still hold the 5-day line, continue to hold.

The rhythm of breaking the 30-day line—use the same logic to gradually clear positions. Don't expect a V-shaped reversal; the market owes you no explanation.

**Key Points for Exiting**

Getting knocked out at a high level by the 5-day line? Try selling one-third to test the waters.

Continuously breaking through the 5-day, 15-day, and 30-day lines? Don't hesitate—liquidate completely. That's the game rule.

**Final Words**

Everyone can talk about methodologies. The real differentiator is whether you can stick to a framework amid market noise. Most people get wiped out by swings—adding positions to gamble on the trend one moment, then cutting positions over small fluctuations the next. What you need isn't more complex strategies, but the discipline to stick with it. That’s the secret to surviving in the crypto market.