#BTC市场分析 The October crash was the most clearly seen not in the price itself, but in the chips speaking. Now, with on-chain data laid out, long-term holders are engaging in an epic distribution—this is a signal—someone is cashing out profits, someone is cutting losses, and some are lying flat and accepting their fate.

25.36 million BTC are accumulated between $80,000 and $90,000, an increase of 1.874 million from October. It looks like a bottom support, but I need to ask myself a question: Are these chips truly locked in by long-term value believers, or are they forced trapped positions? The largest sell-off at costs of $60,000-$70,000 mostly came from chips accumulated before the US election. When profits retreat from the peak, how strong is the mentality to cash out quickly?

The key point is here—only 190,000 BTC between $70,000 and $80,000, creating a real gap. What does this indicate? Once the price drops to this level, the market lacks support, and it might instead become a new liquidity entry point. But before that, what I see is a tug-of-war between floating losses above and profit-taking below.

The major change in chip structure over these two months, in plain language, is: old players are leaving, and a new cost basis is being reshaped. The lesson I learned from this decline is: don’t be scared by distribution data, and don’t be dazzled by stories of support levels. The key is to see clearly who is selling, why they are selling, and where the real bottom is—that’s usually not where the data looks good, but where most people are in fear.