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remember 2019? the market was flooded with retail quant products—everyone hawking their 'revolutionary algo' that basically just stacked a few moving averages together. made a killing off the hype back then.
fast forward to now, and we're watching the exact same pattern play out in prediction markets. same grift, different packaging.
here's the thing though: genuine alpha never gets tweeted out. you won't find it packaged up in some course or algorithm someone's selling you. once it's public knowledge, it's already dead—the edge evaporates the moment everyone else knows about it.
stay skeptical. the real plays stay quiet.
But on the other hand, I am now fully invested in a few prediction markets projects, and I feel like this time is different. I can sense that breakthrough feeling. People call it a scam, but my faith remains, and since the bottom-fishing opportunity has come, I will definitely increase my position.
True alpha definitely doesn't tweet randomly, but I really got a feel for it this time... the last time, everyone.