Last night, the release of the ISM Manufacturing data immediately disrupted the downward trend of gold—15 industries all plunged into recession, with manufacturing contraction far exceeding expectations. That strong bullish candlestick instantly reversed the situation, rendering the previous decline gains meaningless. To be honest, although I had long anticipated that the US manufacturing sector would struggle to show improvement in the short term, the extent of this decline was truly unexpected.

However, not all news is bad. The employment sector barely held the scene—although manufacturing shipments and production efficiency are both waning, the employment downturn at least did not worsen further. This can be seen as a reassurance to the market, with consumer confidence and demand expected to gradually recover. The problem is that this positive signal is currently just a paper promise, requiring more data for validation. At present, the market's focus is entirely on the weakness of manufacturing, and growing economic concerns are intensifying, which in turn has become a driving force for gold to rise.

Let's analyze the current situation from a technical perspective:

On the daily chart, the price has broken through the previous resistance zone, and the short-term moving averages have shifted from downward divergence to an upward turn, with the candlestick firmly above the moving averages. The overall pattern is a sideways but relatively strong consolidation, with key attention on the resistance around 4470.

The 4-hour chart remains in a high-level narrow-range consolidation, with weak momentum and continuation of pullbacks, showing clear signs of stabilization at the previous support around 4450.

On the hourly level, the price has already retreated near the support zone, and the technical correction of the small cycle is close to completion. There is a high probability of another upward surge during the European and American trading sessions.

The key to tonight's operation is whether the 4445 level can hold. If it stabilizes, the short-term upward target is directly aimed at the 4490 to 4500 USD range; during the Asian and European sessions, a momentum-driven rally is expected first, followed by a high likelihood of entering a consolidation phase. Caution is advised: if major funds suddenly withdraw during the European session, it could trigger selling pressure and recreate the intense volatility seen last Friday.

Trading strategy: consider going long within the 4430 to 4445 range, with the first target at 4460 to 4480. If this level is broken, then aim for 4500.