#比特币机构建仓 Looking at this round of combined downturns, I feel a bit emotional. Forced liquidations, legislative hurdles, policy uncertainties—I've heard these words back in 2017, heard them again in 2018, and now in 2024, they are still being repeated.

What truly makes me ponder is MicroStrategy's predicament. I remember when Michael Saylor announced the institutional accumulation of Bitcoin loudly, the market cheered and celebrated, as if it was a signal that institutional funds were entering. But now, concerns over equity dilution have overshadowed the positive news of increased holdings—what does this indicate? It shows that the market's expectations for this story have been overextended. The marginal effect of corporate buying is diminishing, and what was once a catalyst has become a burden.

Gold, however, is strengthening at this moment, approaching historical highs. This contrast is quite interesting. Against the backdrop of rising risk aversion and diversified global asset allocation, funds are choosing gold over Bitcoin. This is not a technical issue; it’s a psychological one—when uncertainty is high enough, people revert to the oldest safe-haven asset.

This cycle is different from the big bull run of 2020-2021. The previous one was characterized by policy easing, abundant liquidity, and institutional FOMO. This cycle is marked by ongoing legislative gridlock, ambiguous policy attitudes, and waning institutional enthusiasm. Institutional accumulation without policy support essentially provides liquidity for retail investors to take the other side.

History tells me that the deepest moments of a bear market are often not when the declines are the largest, but when all catalytic stories have shattered. We are not there yet.