#美联储政策与货币政策 Seeing the latest statement from the Milan Board Member, I am reminded of those familiar scenes from years past. After the 2008 financial crisis, the 2015 stock market crash, and the 2020 pandemic shock... every time the Federal Reserve shifts its policy, the market replays the same story—just with different actors and stages.

This time, the "government shutdown distortion" in the inflation data is essentially noise. What truly matters is the core logic in Milan Board Member's words—"if policies are not adjusted, the risk of recession increases." I've heard this rhetoric many times before; both the wording and logic seem to be paving the way for rate cuts. And looking at the timing—public opinion preheated before the end of December, policy adjustments implemented in early 2025—this rhythm feels very familiar.

The synchronized surge in precious metals is even more interesting. Gold breaking 4380, silver surpassing 68, platinum exceeding 2000—this is not just risk aversion; fundamentally, it reflects the market's pricing of declining real interest rates. History shows that this stage often precedes a rotation of capital from defensive assets to highly elastic assets.

Returning to the crypto market, every rate cut cycle before the 2017 bull market and after the 2020 pandemic has proven one rule—when risk-free yields decline, digital assets, as "limited supply substitutes," regain capital recognition. In the short term, precious metals may divert some safe-haven funds, but once the rate cut path becomes clear, focus shifts to yields and elasticity, and a structural rally will truly unfold.

The key is not to be fooled by short-term volatility but to see through the macro logic chain behind it.