#预测市场 The probability of Bitcoin breaking 100,000 this year has dropped from 10% to 8%, and this decline is quite interesting. In just two days, market sentiment has clearly shifted; some people were still shouting about a year-end surge, but now it seems everyone has hit the brakes.

Conversely, the forecast probability for the 95,000 level has risen from 32% to 25%, indicating that investors are adjusting their expectations, shifting from "dreaming of a peak" to "steady profits." The risk of falling below 80,000 has also increased from 18% to 15%, as the market is re-pricing risk.

Polymarket's prediction markets have been like a weather vane for sentiment these days; the enthusiasm in the crypto space is gradually cooling down. Year-end profit-taking was already common, and combined with various macro factors, everyone is now just watching the market move. The very low probability of breaking 100,000 in the short term suggests that not many are truly optimistic about surpassing that level within the year.

Let's wait and see how things develop; changes in prediction market data often reflect the true market sentiment.