#美联储降息 Seeing Milan's remarks, my mind flashed back to those days in 2008. Back then, data was also a mess, with all kinds of "anomalies" emerging one after another. Everyone was debating whether to cut interest rates, and the result—well, it was too late.

The CPI upward deviation caused by the government shutdown is essentially data distortion. Housing inflation indices are skewed, and the annual data is filled with a lot of noise. Looking at data in such times is like seeing flowers through fog. Milan was very straightforward—if policies are not adjusted, the risk of recession will increase. What this dovish signal means right now, we all understand.

Looking back at history, whenever the Federal Reserve starts using phrases like "will cut eventually," it usually indicates some level of preparation. The "mid-term adjustment" in 2019 and the rapid shift in 2020 follow similar patterns. The key is not when they say they will cut, but that they have already acknowledged the need to do so.

The current cycle's data interference is more complex than before—combining policy disruptions with the tail risks of structural inflation. When the rate cuts finally materialize, market reactions could be more intense than any in history. Projects that have been struggling in high-interest-rate environments may find relief and rebound at that time, potentially rewriting some people's expectations.

It's still that old saying: signals of policy shifts often come earlier than the policies themselves. Smart investors have already started positioning themselves.