#永续合约交易 On-chain data is speaking. After BTC reclaimed the $90,000 level, the open interest in perpetual contracts increased from 304,000 to 310,000 coins, and the funding rate rose from 0.004% to 0.009%—these two indicators together indeed point to longs rebalancing.

From a data perspective, the increase is not dramatic (only 2%), but the timing is sensitive. Liquidity expectations at the end of the year are relatively weak, and the accumulation of leveraged longs during this period indicates that market participants have a certain consensus on short-term upward movement. James Wynn’s position adjustment also confirms this—after taking profits from closing short positions, he directly turned to long positions with 40x leverage, with a liquidation price at $87,111.

It’s important to note that while high leverage positions can amplify expected returns, once volatility exceeds expectations, there is a risk of liquidation. The current issue is not about directional judgment but about the sustainability of this long accumulation. If the funding rate continues to rise, it may attract shorts to reverse their positions, leading to a clear leveraged game in the short term.

Year-end market movements are indeed expected to be volatile, but whether it moves up or down ultimately depends on the real flow of institutional funds. On-chain contract data is just a reflection of participant sentiment, not a decisive factor.