Gold prices rapidly break through $4,370; gold analysts reveal three major driving forces

On Friday during Asian market hours, spot gold continued to rise, approaching the $4,378 per ounce level, with a daily surge of nearly $60. What is driving this wave of gold行情? Let’s analyze from multiple dimensions.

Technical Outlook Brewing Stronger Signals

From the chart performance, after experiencing a significant increase, gold remains at a high level, maintaining an overall bullish trend. The $4,300 per ounce area has become a key support zone. Once this level is stabilized, gold prices are expected to continue testing previous highs or even open up new upward space. Notably, short-term technical indicators have entered high zones, suggesting potential for a phase correction or consolidation.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations as the Core Driver

Market expectations for further rate cuts in the US by 2026 continue to rise, supporting gold as an important factor. The Fed has already lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% at the December policy meeting. According to the FOMC minutes, most Fed officials favor continuing accommodative policies amid a persistent decline in inflation, though there are disagreements on the timing and magnitude of rate cuts.

Lower interest rates directly reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which benefits this non-yielding precious metal. In the medium to long term, if further rate cut expectations materialize, real yields could continue to decline, providing structural support for gold.

Safe-Haven Funds Continually Flow In

Besides policy factors, geopolitical risks are also boosting gold prices. Conflicts between Israel and Iran, tensions between the US and Venezuela—these uncertainties continue to overshadow global markets. Whenever risk appetite diminishes, traders tend to allocate assets that preserve value, increasing gold’s appeal as a traditional safe-haven. Central banks’ ongoing gold purchases and institutional allocations also support the gold price底部.

Multiple Constraints on Further Upside

Caution is warranted as the upward momentum faces profit-taking pressure at high levels. The most critical constraint is the CME( raising margin requirements for gold, silver, and other precious metals. This means traders need to commit more capital to maintain positions, avoiding default risks at contract settlement. As margin requirements increase, traders with high leverage long positions may be forced to reduce holdings, amplifying price volatility.

Additionally, unexpectedly strong US economic data or a phased rebound in the dollar could also suppress gold prices. Profit-taking or portfolio adjustments during uncertain periods will also limit further upside.

2025 Gold Prices Achieve Remarkable Gains

Looking back over the past year, gold closed 2025 with approximately a 65% annual increase, the largest single-year gain since 1979. This achievement fully reflects the dual support of rate cut expectations and safe-haven capital inflows.

Future Trading Recommendations

From a macro perspective, the Fed’s policy path remains the dominant factor. Despite disagreements among officials, most favor continued easing amid declining inflation. On the capital side, safe-haven demand remains strong, with central banks and institutional allocations providing底部 support.

However, in the short term, caution is needed against high-level volatility and correction risks. Some high-leverage long positions may be forced out due to CME margin hikes, and high technical indicator levels also suggest a correction need. Overall, under the dual support of rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic. But operationally, it’s more suitable to adopt a correction-based long strategy and avoid chasing highs.